The Assam Turnaround, How the BJP Rapidly Rose in Tribal Strongholds

As the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) waits for the counting on May 4 to see if it will retain power in Assam for a third consecutive term, a look at Assembly polls since 2006 in the biggest northeastern state shows how sudden the growth of the BJP has been and how fast it has risen from obscurity to dominance. Assam has a total of 126 seats, of which 16 are reserved for Scheduled Tribes (STs), who account for 12.4 per cent of the state’s total population of 3.12 crore as per the 2011 Census. Until 2006, the BJP had not won a single seat in Assam in any of the Assembly polls. Today, it is the dominant political force in the state, and its rise has been particularly pronounced in ST-reserved seats. The 2026 results will reveal if the BJP will retain its ST-seat stronghold or concede ground to the Congress-led Asom Somnilo Motora Maha (ASM) alliance that is desperately trying for a comeback.

The Early Years: From Zero to Modest Gains

In the 2006 Assembly elections, the BJP, which had by then been in power at the Centre for the first time (1998-2004), won three ST seats and 12 seats overall. This was a modest performance, but it was a beginning. The party had contested a number of ST seats and managed to convert some of them. For a party that had previously drawn a blank, this was progress.

In the 2011 polls, however, its performance worsened. The BJP could win only five seats overall and none of the ST seats. This was a setback. The Congress, which was in power at the Centre and in the state, seemed invincible. The BJP’s national fortunes were at a low ebb. In Assam, the party was marginalised.

The Modi Wave: 2014 and the 2016 Assembly Sweep

The BJP’s rise to power at the Centre in 2014 had a huge impact in Assam, as can be seen in the sudden and massive upturn in its fortunes in the 2016 Assembly polls. Its rise coincided with the erosion of vote shares of not just the Congress, its major rival, but also other regional parties like the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP), which had once ruled Assam.

From drawing a blank in all the 13 ST seats it contested in 2011, the BJP managed to win eight of the 10 ST seats it contested in 2016. It had roped in the AGP and the Bodoland People’s Front (BPF) into the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) as minor allies. The coalition together won 14 out of the 16 ST-reserved seats.

The data is striking. The BJP’s vote share in ST seats saw a steep rise from a meagre 7.1 per cent in 2011 to 41.7 per cent in 2016. This was not a gradual increase; it was a landslide shift. The Congress, which had dominated ST seats for decades, saw its vote share plummet. The regional parties were marginalised.

What explains this dramatic shift? Several factors. First, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s personal popularity and his promise of development resonated with tribal communities, who had felt neglected by previous governments. Second, the BJP’s alliance with the AGP and the BPF helped consolidate the non-Congress vote. Third, the party’s focus on infrastructure, roads, electricity, and healthcare in tribal areas paid electoral dividends. Fourth, the Congress was plagued by internal factionalism and a perception of corruption.

2021: Consolidation, Not Retreat

In 2021, though the hit rate of the BJP (seats contested versus seats won) came down overall, it managed to increase its tally in ST seats by winning nine of the 10 seats it contested. The NDA coalition (BJP, AGP, and BPF) won 12 out of the 16 ST seats. The BJP’s vote share in ST seats rose further to a whopping 54.4 per cent.

The Congress-led alliance, which had been gradually losing its footing within these seats, saw its vote share in ST seats drop to 31.2 per cent in 2021, down from 40.7 per cent in 2016 and 57.5 per cent in 2011. The decline was steady and steep.

The 2021 election also saw the emergence of a new factor: the Assam Jatiya Parishad (AJP), a regional party formed by former AGP leaders. The AJP contested several seats and cut into the AGP’s vote share, but it did not significantly affect the BJP’s performance in ST seats.

The Congress’s Decline in ST Seats

The Congress-led alliance’s decline and the BJP-led NDA’s ascent is revealed better in the vote shares of the two national parties, besides the seats they managed to win. As Chart 5 shows, the Congress managed to regain some of its lost ground in terms of its overall vote share in Assam in 2021—from 31.8 per cent in 2016 to 38.7 per cent in 2021—even though it did not win. However, its vote share in the ST seats was still lower than what it had secured in 2006 (40.7 per cent in 2016, 31.2 per cent in 2021, compared to 57.5 per cent in 2011 and 43.3 per cent in 2006).

The Congress’s problem in Assam is not just the BJP; it is also the fragmentation of the opposition. The AGP, the BPF, the AJP, and other regional parties all compete for the same anti-BJP vote. In a first-past-the-post system, this fragmentation benefits the BJP.

The 2026 Elections: What’s at Stake?

The 2026 results will reveal if the BJP will retain its stronghold in the ST seats or concede ground to the Congress that is desperately trying for a comeback in the state. The Congress is fighting the 2026 polls under the banner of the Asom Somnilo Motora Maha (ASM), an alliance that includes the Congress, the AGP, and other regional parties. The alliance has tried to present a united front, but it remains to be seen whether it can overcome the internal differences that have plagued it in the past.

The BJP, on the other hand, is confident of retaining power. It is banking on its record of governance, its welfare schemes, and the popularity of Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma. The party has also tried to address the concerns of tribal communities by focusing on issues such as land rights, forest rights, and cultural preservation.

The Unfulfilled Promise: ST Status for Six Communities

Interestingly, the demand for ST status to six communities—including the Tai Ahoms, the Adivasi ‘tea tribes’, Chutia, Koch-Rajbanshi, Matak, and Moran, who together account for roughly 30 per cent of the state’s population—is getting louder, a demand that the winning party has to reckon with.

During the BJP’s 2014 Lok Sabha campaign, Prime Minister Narendra Modi promised that ST status will be granted to these communities. However, the BJP is yet to fulfill the promise despite being in power at the Centre and winning two consecutive terms in Assam. The promise has been搁置 for over a decade. The communities have grown impatient.

The granting of ST status is a complex issue. It requires a constitutional amendment and the concurrence of the President. It also requires the recommendation of the National Commission for Scheduled Tribes. There are also concerns about the impact of granting ST status on the existing ST communities, who fear that their share of reservations and benefits will be diluted.

Nevertheless, the promise remains unfulfilled. With the granting of ST status being a key promise of the ASM in the 2026 polls, the results on May 4 will reveal if this promise has resonated with these communities. If the ASM performs well in areas dominated by these six communities, it will be a signal to the BJP that it cannot take their votes for granted.

The Tribal Vote: A Decisive Factor

The ST-reserved seats are not the only seats where tribal voters matter. In many general seats, tribal voters form a significant minority. Their voting pattern can determine the outcome in dozens of constituencies. The BJP’s success in winning over tribal voters has been a key factor in its rise in Assam.

The Congress, which historically enjoyed the support of tribal communities, has been unable to regain their trust. The party’s focus on urban, upper-caste voters has alienated its traditional tribal base. The ASM alliance has tried to address this by including tribal leaders and focusing on tribal issues, but it remains to be seen whether it can reverse the trend.

Conclusion: A Waiting Game

The counting on May 4 will be a moment of truth for Assam. The BJP is hoping for a third consecutive term, which would be a historic achievement. The Congress-led ASM is hoping for a comeback, which would be a morale booster for the national party. The regional parties are hoping to play the role of kingmaker.

The data from past elections shows that the BJP’s rise in Assam has been sudden, dramatic, and particularly pronounced in ST-reserved seats. The party has gone from zero to dominance in less than two decades. Whether it can sustain this dominance will depend on its ability to address the concerns of tribal communities, fulfill its promises, and manage its alliance partners.

The unfulfilled promise of ST status for six communities looms large over the election. It is a reminder that elections are not just about the past; they are also about the future. The communities that have been waiting for ST status for over a decade will vote on May 4. Their votes will be decisive. The waiting will soon be over.

Q&A: BJP’s Rise in Assam’s Tribal Seats

Q1: What has been the trajectory of the BJP’s performance in Assam’s Assembly elections since 2006, particularly in ST-reserved seats?

A1: In 2006, the BJP won 3 ST seats out of 12 contested (and 12 seats overall). In 2011, its performance worsened: it won zero ST seats (0 out of 13 contested) and only 5 seats overall. The 2014 Lok Sabha victory of the BJP at the Centre had a huge impact: in 2016, the BJP won 8 out of 10 contested ST seats (and the NDA coalition won 14 out of 16 ST seats). Its vote share in ST seats rose from 7.1 per cent in 2011 to 41.7 per cent in 2016. In 2021, the BJP won 9 out of 10 contested ST seats (NDA coalition won 12 out of 16). Its vote share in ST seats rose further to 54.4 per cent. Until 2006, the BJP had not won a single seat in Assam in any Assembly poll.

Q2: How has the Congress-led alliance performed in Assam’s ST-reserved seats over the same period?

A2: The Congress-led alliance has seen a steady decline. In 2001, it won 8 out of 12 contested ST seats; in 2006, it won 9 out of 16 contested; in 2011, it won 9 out of 16 contested; by 2016, it won only 2 out of 16 contested; in 2021, it won 3 out of 16 contested. Its vote share in ST seats dropped from 57.5 per cent in 2011 to 40.7 per cent in 2016 to 31.2 per cent in 2021. While the Congress regained some overall vote share in Assam in 2021 (from 31.8 per cent in 2016 to 38.7 per cent), its ST-seat vote share continued to decline. The Congress is fighting the 2026 polls under the banner of the Asom Somnilo Motora Maha (ASM) alliance, hoping for a comeback.

Q3: Which communities are demanding ST status, and what is the status of this demand?

A3: Six communities are demanding ST status: the Tai Ahoms, the Adivasi ‘tea tribes’, Chutia, Koch-Rajbanshi, Matak, and Moran. Together, they account for roughly 30 per cent of Assam’s population. During the BJP’s 2014 Lok Sabha campaign, Prime Minister Narendra Modi promised that ST status would be granted to these communities. However, the promise remains unfulfilled despite the BJP being in power at the Centre and winning two consecutive terms in Assam (2016, 2021). The granting of ST status is a complex constitutional process requiring a constitutional amendment, the President’s concurrence, and a recommendation from the National Commission for Scheduled Tribes. There are also concerns about the impact on existing ST communities (fear of diluted reservations). The ASM alliance has made this a key promise in the 2026 polls, and the results will reveal if this promise has resonated with these communities.

Q4: What factors explain the BJP’s dramatic rise in Assam’s tribal seats between 2011 and 2016?

A4: The article identifies several factors:

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s personal popularity and his promise of “development” resonated with tribal communities who felt neglected by previous governments.
Alliance strategy: The BJP roped in the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) and the Bodoland People’s Front (BPF) into the NDA, helping consolidate the non-Congress vote.
Focus on infrastructure: The party’s emphasis on roads, electricity, and healthcare in tribal areas paid electoral dividends.
Congress weakness: The Congress was plagued by internal factionalism and a perception of corruption, alienating its traditional tribal base.
The vote share of the BJP in ST seats rose from 7.1 per cent in 2011 to 41.7 per cent in 2016—a “landslide shift.”

Q5: What is at stake in the 2026 Assam Assembly elections, particularly for tribal communities and the unfulfilled ST status promise?

A5: The 2026 results (counting on May 4) will reveal:

Whether the BJP can retain its ST-seat stronghold for a third consecutive term, or whether the Congress-led ASM alliance can make a comeback.
Whether the unfulfilled promise of ST status for six communities (the Tai Ahoms, tea tribes, Chutia, Koch-Rajbanshi, Matak, and Moran) will affect voting patterns. These communities make up roughly 30 per cent of Assam’s population and have been waiting over a decade for the promise to be fulfilled.
If the ASM performs well in areas dominated by these six communities, it will be a “signal to the BJP that it cannot take their votes for granted.”
The tribal vote is decisive not only in ST-reserved seats (16 seats) but also in many general seats where tribal voters form a significant minority. The article concludes: “The unfulfilled promise of ST status for six communities looms large over the election. … The communities that have been waiting for ST status for over a decade will vote on May 4. Their votes will be decisive. The waiting will soon be over.”

The Assam Turnaround, How the BJP Rapidly Rose in Tribal Strongholds