Assam’s Mandate of Assertion and Polarisation, How the BJP Conflated Identity and Development
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is set to form the government in Assam for a third consecutive term. In an Assembly of 126 seats, the seat as well as vote share of the incumbent alliance has significantly gone up. Politics in Assam is marked by great linguistic, religious and ethnic diversity. This has created ample ground for political polarisation in many directions. Historically, the State has undergone various political shifts ranging from Congress dominance till the mid-1970s to the rise of regionalism in the mid-1980s, before returning to Congress dominance in the first decades of the 21st century. The State, once considered a stronghold of the Indian National Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA), has now become a stronghold of the BJP. The present electoral mandate therefore needs to be read as a renewed validation of an already existing political domination, with augmented ideological moorings. The BJP’s strategy of conflating Hindu and Assamese identities, along with promoting welfare and development schemes, has led to its decisive victory in the State.
The Congress’s Muslim Dilemma: From Dominance to Eradication
The once formidable ‘Congress system’ began developing cracks in Assam soon after Tarun Gogoi’s return to power in 2011. The party managed to retain power despite a pervasive image of corruption, largely due to its image of creating ‘peace and development’ as the party initiated negotiations with major rebel groups in Assam. However, an important development in that election was the emergence of the All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) that emerged as a major political player by winning 18 seats, cutting into ‘Muslim voters’ seen as a traditional bastion of the Congress.
At that point, the consolidation of ‘Muslim votes’ helped the Congress as there was a surge of sympathetic Hindu votes for the party, which otherwise could have gone to the BJP that was already making a slow but steady mark over Assam’s politics. This complex negotiation with the AIUDF and the question of ‘Muslim votes’ would later set up the Congress’s ‘Muslim dilemma’ in Assam for years to come. This needs to be read with the fact that in the current verdict, the Congress has faced near complete eradication in the Hindu majority areas of Assam, as the party has managed to elect just one Hindu candidate, out of its total tally of 20 seats. A meticulously crafted digital campaign by the BJP managed to create a powerful narrative labelling the Congress as a “Miya party” (Miya is a pejorative term for Bengali-speaking Muslims), which the opposition was not able to counter.
The Congress is now reduced to a party of religious minorities, primarily Muslims and Christians. Its support among Hindus has collapsed. This is a structural transformation. The Congress can no longer claim to be a party of all Assamese; it is now a party of specific communities. This makes its future electoral prospects precarious.
The Tea Tribe Shift: Unfulfilled Promises and Union Decline
The other trend with strong implications for the years to come is the declining hold of the Congress in the tea trade unions due to unfulfilled promises such as raised wages, the grant of land pattas, and Scheduled Tribe (ST) status to tea tribes. The tea gardens of Assam have long been a Congress stronghold. The party had a symbiotic relationship with the trade unions. But the BJP, under Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma, has systematically worked to break this relationship. It has offered welfare schemes to tea garden workers: free rations, housing, health insurance, and cash transfers. It has promised to pursue ST status for tea tribes. And it has projected the Congress as a party that took their votes for granted but delivered little.
The result is visible in the election results. Several tea garden constituencies that were once Congress bastions have swung to the BJP. The tea tribe vote is no longer a safe deposit for the Congress. The party’s traditional working-class base has eroded.
The Road to Victory: Development Plus Polarisation
The BJP’s victory in Assam can be understood through two interrelated factors.
One, the BJP’s developmental model has worked out in different ways. At a broader level, a section of people feel that the party has delivered in terms of building the necessary infrastructure. Roads, bridges, hospitals, and educational institutions have been constructed. The state’s economy has grown. At a more minute level, people feel that the various schemes introduced by the ruling incumbent are vital, and that they can’t afford to let them go. Voters are now habituated to their ‘hitaidhari’ (beneficiaries). The BJP has created a welfare state in Assam, with direct benefit transfers (DBT) for food, cooking gas, housing, and healthcare. Voters have become dependent on these schemes. The fear of losing them is a powerful electoral weapon.
Two, the self-projection of the BJP as a protector of Hindus and the consolidation of the Hindu and Assamese identity has helped the party consolidate votes. The hard-line Hindutva approach rooted in religious polarisation has met with demographic dividends given the perceived threat of Muslim-majority communities. The BJP has successfully conflated Assamese identity with Hindu identity. To be Assamese, the narrative goes, is to be Hindu. Bengali-speaking Muslims are cast as “infiltrators” or “Bangladeshis,” not as Assamese. The Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA), the National Register of Citizens (NRC) process, and the rhetoric of “love jihad” have all fed into this polarisation.
The winning of regionalist forces in the state was already marked in the previous Assembly elections. It has now become further established; the Congress’s alliance with the Assam Jatiya Parishad (AJP) and the Rajiv Dal seems to have come too late in the day to have had any significant impact. The AJP, which had won several seats in 2021 as an anti-CAA party, could not replicate its performance. Its alliance with the Congress diluted its anti-BJP credentials. Voters who wanted a change voted for the BJP directly, not for the Congress-AJP combine.
The Polarised Mandate: Implications for the Future
The 2026 Assam election is a polarised mandate. The BJP has consolidated the Hindu vote, while the Congress has become the party of minorities. This is not a healthy development for a multi-ethnic, multi-religious state like Assam. It threatens the social fabric. It alienates Muslims, who feel excluded from the mainstream. It creates an environment where hate speech and communal violence can flourish.
The BJP’s victory is also a mandate for majoritarianism. The party’s campaign was marked by the use of the term “Miya” as a slur against Bengali-speaking Muslims. This was not condemned by the BJP leadership. The Election Commission did not take action. The normalization of such language is dangerous. It legitimises the dehumanisation of a community.
The Congress, for its part, must introspect. Its reduction to a minority party is not just the result of BJP’s polarisation; it is also the result of its own failures. The Congress failed to communicate its vision for Assam. It failed to counter the BJP’s narrative. It failed to build a coalition of secular forces. It relied on its traditional vote bank and did not expand its base. The result is a near-wipeout in Hindu majority areas.
The Way Forward: Rebuilding a Secular Polity
The Assam election result is a warning for all secular forces in India. The BJP’s strategy of combining development with polarisation is winning elections across the country. The opposition has not found an effective counter. It cannot match the BJP’s electoral machine. It cannot match its financial resources. It cannot match its control over the media.
But the opposition can learn. It can invest in grassroots organisation. It can communicate a coherent alternative vision. It can build coalitions based on issues, not just identities. And it can defend secularism as a positive value, not just as a negative reaction to Hindutva.
For Assam, the path ahead is challenging. The BJP government must govern for all Assamese, not just for Hindus. It must protect the rights of minorities. It must ensure that the CAA and NRC processes are fair and humane. And it must resist the temptation to use state institutions to target political opponents.
The mandate of assertion and polarisation has given the BJP a third term. The question is whether it will use this mandate to build a more inclusive Assam or to deepen the divisions. The answer will shape the state’s future for decades to come.
Q&A: Assam’s Assembly Election 2026
Q1: What was the Congress’s “Muslim dilemma,” and how did it contribute to its near-eradication in Hindu majority areas?
A1: The Congress’s “Muslim dilemma” refers to its complex political relationship with the AIUDF (a party representing Bengali-speaking Muslims) and Muslim voters. In 2011, the AIUDF emerged as a major player, cutting into the Congress’s Muslim vote bank. However, that consolidation of Muslim votes helped the Congress, as it also attracted “sympathetic Hindu votes” that might otherwise have gone to the BJP. Over time, the BJP created a powerful narrative labelling the Congress as a “Miya party” (Miya is a pejorative term for Bengali-speaking Muslims). In the 2026 verdict, the Congress has faced “near complete eradication in the Hindu majority areas of Assam, as the party has managed to elect just one Hindu candidate, out of its total tally of 20 seats.”
Q2: What factors led to the decline of the Congress’s support among tea tribe communities?
A2: The Congress’s hold on tea trade unions declined due to “unfulfilled promises such as raised wages, the grant of land pattas, and Scheduled Tribe (ST) status to tea tribes.” The BJP under Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma systematically worked to break the Congress’s symbiotic relationship with tea garden unions, offering welfare schemes (free rations, housing, health insurance, cash transfers) and promising to pursue ST status for tea tribes. The result is that “several tea garden constituencies that were once Congress bastions have swung to the BJP.”
Q3: What are the two interrelated factors that explain the BJP’s victory in Assam?
A3:
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Developmental model: At a broader level, people feel the party has delivered infrastructure (roads, bridges, hospitals). At a more minute level, voters feel that various welfare schemes (food, cooking gas, housing, healthcare) are “vital, and that they can’t afford to let them go.” Voters are now habituated to their ‘hitaidhari’ (beneficiaries).
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Identity consolidation: The BJP’s self-projection as a “protector of Hindus” and the conflation of “Hindu and Assamese identity” has helped consolidate votes. The hard-line Hindutva approach rooted in religious polarisation has met with “demographic dividends given the perceived threat of Muslim-majority communities.” The BJP successfully casts Bengali-speaking Muslims as “infiltrators” or “Bangladeshis,” not as Assamese.
Q4: Why did the Congress’s alliance with regional parties (AJP and Rajiv Dal) fail to make a significant impact?
A4: The Congress’s alliance with the Assam Jatiya Parishad (AJP) and the Rajiv Dal “seems to have come too late in the day to have had any significant impact.” The AJP, which had won several seats in 2021 as an anti-CAA party, could not replicate its performance. Its alliance with the Congress “diluted its anti-BJP credentials.” Voters who wanted a change from the BJP “voted for the BJP directly, not for the Congress-AJP combine.” The winning of regionalist forces was already marked in previous elections, but this time the alliance failed to consolidate the anti-BJP vote.
Q5: What are the implications of the polarised mandate for Assam’s future?
A5: The polarised mandate (BJP consolidating Hindu votes, Congress reduced to a minority party) is “not a healthy development for a multi-ethnic, multi-religious state like Assam.” It threatens the social fabric, alienates Muslims, and creates an environment where “hate speech and communal violence can flourish.” The BJP’s campaign used the term “Miya” as a slur against Bengali-speaking Muslims, which was not condemned, normalising the “dehumanisation of a community.” The article warns that the BJP government must “govern for all Assamese, not just for Hindus” and must “resist the temptation to use state institutions to target political opponents.” The Congress must “invest in grassroots organisation, communicate a coherent alternative vision, build coalitions based on issues, not just identities, and defend secularism as a positive value.” The mandate has given the BJP a third term; “the question is whether it will use this mandate to build a more inclusive Assam or to deepen the divisions. The answer will shape the state’s future for decades to come.”
