Will a Nation Grow, Stagnate, or Decline? Technology Will Tell
There is a question every civilisation has had to answer in its own era: What is the engine of prosperity? For most of human history, the answers were familiar—land, labour, capital, natural resources, trade routes. Nations that commanded these inputs commanded wealth and power. The Industrial Revolution added machinery and energy to that list. The 20th century added finance, institutions, and geopolitical leverage. But we are living through a rupture in that long pattern. For the first time, technology is not merely one factor among many that supports economic growth. It is the primary, foundational, and irreplaceable determinant of whether a nation grows, stagnates, or declines.
Consider what the last three decades have revealed. Countries that invested early and seriously in technology—the United States, China, South Korea, Taiwan, Israel—have generated disproportionate shares of global wealth and wielded disproportionate geopolitical influence. Contrast this with resource-rich nations that failed to build technological capacity. They remain dependent—their wealth volatile, their growth episodic, their strategic position weak. The COVID-19 pandemic confirmed this in the starkest possible terms. Nations with strong digital infrastructure maintained economic activity. Nations with mRNA technology capability produced vaccines at unprecedented speed. Nations with advanced logistics and AI-enabled supply chains recovered faster. The pandemic was not just a health crisis; it was a stress test of technological capacity.
Previous technological revolutions unfolded across decades or centuries. Nations could observe, adapt, and catch up. That window is narrowing rapidly. Artificial intelligence, in particular, is not a static capability that can be acquired off the shelf. It compounds. A nation that builds strong AI capability today will have exponentially stronger capability in five years. A nation that delays will face not a gap but a chasm. The recent moves by the US government to prohibit access to certain AI models are a clear sign that technology denial is and will be a part of the geopolitical toolkit of certain nations. The US has restricted the export of advanced AI chips to China. It has placed limits on the sharing of AI research. It is treating AI as a strategic asset, not a commercial commodity. India must do the same.
India has the demographic scale and intellectual capital. It has one of the world’s largest pools of engineers, scientists, and entrepreneurs. But what it has historically underinvested in is the third ingredient: technological sovereignty. The capacity to design, manufacture, and deploy critical technology on Indian soil, under Indian control, for Indian strategic and economic purposes. The India Semiconductor Mission, the Production-Linked Incentive (PLI) and Design-Linked Incentive (DLI) schemes, the IndiaAI mission, the Digital India infrastructure, the Safe-Trusted-Accountable (STA) framework for platform and AI regulation—these are steps in the right direction. But they are the first steps. The destination is an India that does not merely consume technology or export talent, but that is a full-spectrum technology power.
The India Semiconductor Mission, for instance, aims to make India a hub for semiconductor design and manufacturing. This is not a minor ambition. Semiconductors are the building blocks of the modern economy. Every smartphone, every laptop, every server, every autonomous vehicle relies on them. The global semiconductor market is worth over $500 billion. Currently, India imports almost all of its semiconductors. This is a strategic vulnerability. A disruption in supply could cripple the economy. The India Semiconductor Mission is an attempt to reduce that vulnerability.
The PLI and DLI schemes are designed to incentivise domestic manufacturing and design. They offer financial incentives to companies that set up manufacturing facilities in India. They offer design-linked incentives to companies that design chips in India. These are not just economic policies; they are strategic policies. They are designed to build India’s technological self-reliance.
The IndiaAI mission is a comprehensive programme to build AI capability across sectors. It includes investments in AI research, AI infrastructure, and AI talent. It includes the creation of AI datasets for Indian languages. It includes the development of AI applications in healthcare, agriculture, education, and governance. The mission is a recognition that AI will be the defining technology of the 21st century.
There is a final, democratic dimension to this argument that is often overlooked. Technology-driven economic growth is, at its best, the most broadly distributed form of prosperity in history. Digital platforms have given small businesses access to national markets. Mobile payments have given unbanked citizens access to the financial system. Telemedicine has given remote communities access to healthcare. Online education has given first-generation learners access to world-class knowledge. In a country like India, these gains represent the difference between exclusion and participation for hundreds of millions of people. The politics of technology in India cannot be the preserve of elites. It must be a politics of inclusion.
The challenge is that technology is not neutral. It can be used to include or exclude. It can be used to empower or control. It can be used to create wealth or to concentrate it. The outcome depends on the choices we make. If India builds its technological capacity in a way that is inclusive, transparent, and accountable, it can lift hundreds of millions out of poverty. If it builds it in a way that is exclusive, opaque, and unaccountable, it will deepen inequality.
The United States and China are the two dominant technology powers today. India is a distant third. But the gap is not fixed. It can be closed. It requires investment, focus, and political will. It requires a recognition that technology is not a sector; it is the sector. Every other sector depends on it. Agriculture depends on technology for precision farming. Healthcare depends on technology for telemedicine and diagnostics. Education depends on technology for online learning. Manufacturing depends on technology for automation. Finance depends on technology for digital payments. A nation that does not build its technological capacity will be dependent on others for its most critical needs.
History will record the current era as the moment when technology ceased to be a means to an end and became the end itself. The nations that thrive will be the ones that build their own technological capacity. The nations that stagnate will be the ones that consume technology made by others. The nations that decline will be the ones that fail to build it at all. India has the potential to be among the first category. It has the talent, the scale, and the ambition. What it needs is the will.
Questions and Answers
Q1: According to the article, what is the primary determinant of whether a nation grows, stagnates, or declines in the current era?
A1: Technology is the primary, foundational, and irreplaceable determinant of whether a nation grows, stagnates, or declines. It is no longer just one factor among many; it is the engine of prosperity.
Q2: What evidence does the article provide that technology is a strategic asset for nations?
A2: The article cites the COVID-19 pandemic, where nations with strong digital infrastructure and mRNA technology recovered faster. It also notes that countries like the US, China, South Korea, and Israel have generated disproportionate wealth and influence through early technology investment.
Q3: What is “technological sovereignty,” and why is it important for India?
A3: Technological sovereignty is the capacity to design, manufacture, and deploy critical technology on Indian soil, under Indian control, for Indian strategic and economic purposes. It is important because it reduces India’s dependence on other nations for critical technologies like semiconductors and AI.
Q4: What are the key initiatives mentioned that India has launched to build technological sovereignty?
A4: The key initiatives include the India Semiconductor Mission, the PLI and DLI schemes, the IndiaAI mission, Digital India infrastructure, and the STA framework for platform and AI regulation.
Q5: What is the “final, democratic dimension” of technology-driven growth that the article highlights?
A5: The article highlights that technology-driven growth can be the most broadly distributed form of prosperity in history, providing access to markets, financial systems, healthcare, and education to hundreds of millions who were previously excluded. The politics of technology in India must be inclusive and not just the preserve of elites.
