Dual Challenge, El Niño and Global Tensions, India’s Moment of Preparedness
In recent weeks, El Niño has re-entered public discourse, frequently appearing in weather updates and policy conversations. While it originates in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, its influence stretches far beyond, altering atmospheric patterns that directly affect India’s monsoon. For a country where nearly 70 per cent of annual rainfall is delivered during the monsoon season, even subtle disruptions can have far-reaching implications. Compounding these climate-related challenges are geopolitical tensions unfolding across the globe. Conflicts involving major players such as the United States, Israel, and Iran have the potential to disrupt global energy markets. While these tensions are unrelated to El Niño, their economic consequences can intensify its impact. Often seen as a distant ocean event, El Niño significantly impacts India’s monsoon, agriculture, and water security, while rising geopolitical tensions threaten energy markets—together creating a volatile environment that demands preparedness. As 2026 unfolds, early indicators suggest the possible development of El Niño conditions. This is not a guarantee of crisis, but a warning. And warnings, if heeded, can be managed.
How El Niño Affects India’s Monsoon
At its core, El Niño refers to the abnormal warming of surface waters in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. This warming weakens the atmospheric circulation that pulls moisture-laden winds towards the Indian subcontinent. As a result, the monsoon—India’s climatic lifeline—can become erratic. Rainfall may arrive late, pause unpredictably, or fall in short, intense bursts rather than being evenly distributed. Such variability often proves more damaging than outright deficit. Agriculture, water management, and rural livelihoods depend not just on how much rain falls, but when and how it does. A delayed monsoon can disrupt sowing cycles, while prolonged dry spells followed by sudden downpours can damage crops and reduce yields.
India’s historical experience with El Niño underscores its significance. Several major El Niño years—including 1965-66, 1972-73, 1987-88, 2002, 2009, and 2015-16—were associated with drought-like conditions, reduced agricultural output, and economic stress. The 1987-88 episode, for instance, led to one of the most severe droughts in recent history, affecting vast regions of India and neighbouring countries. However, the relationship is not always deterministic. The strong El Niño event of 1997-98 did not translate into a severe drought in India, thanks to the interplay of other climatic factors. This variability highlights an important point: El Niño increases risk, but does not guarantee a crisis.
The Agricultural Impact: Rain-Fed Vulnerability
The first and most immediate impact of a weak or erratic monsoon is felt in agriculture. A large share of India’s farmland remains rain-fed, leaving farmers highly dependent on timely rainfall. Crops like rice, pulses, and oilseeds are particularly sensitive to rainfall variations. A disrupted monsoon can lead to lower yields, reduced farm incomes, and cascading effects on food supply and prices.
Consider the following chain: El Niño leads to delayed monsoon → sowing is postponed → crop duration is compressed → yields are lower → farmers’ incomes fall → rural demand for manufactured goods declines → industrial growth slows → government revenues fall → fiscal deficit expands. This is not a theoretical exercise; it has happened before. In 2009, a severe drought coincided with the global financial crisis, creating a double whammy that slowed India’s recovery.
India has made progress in expanding irrigation. The area under irrigation has increased, and schemes like the Pradhan Mantri Krishi Sinchayee Yojana (PMKSY) aim to provide “water to every field.” But a large portion of farmland—especially in rain-fed regions of central, eastern, and northeastern India—remains unirrigated. For these farmers, the monsoon is still the only source of water. Crop diversification is another tool. Farmers who grow millets, pulses, and oilseeds are less water-intensive than those who grow paddy and sugarcane. But diversification requires market access, price support, and knowledge. It cannot be mandated; it must be incentivised.
Water Security: Reservoirs, Groundwater, and Cities
Water resources face parallel stress. Reservoirs, rivers, and groundwater levels depend heavily on monsoon replenishment. A deficient or poorly distributed monsoon can result in water shortages, affecting both rural communities and urban centres. Cities may resort to rationing, while villages struggle with access to drinking water and irrigation.
The 2015-16 El Niño, combined with two consecutive weak monsoons, led to severe water shortages in Maharashtra, Karnataka, and Telangana. Cities like Chennai ran out of water in 2019, even though the monsoon had been normal. The problem was not just lack of rain; it was lack of storage, lack of recharge, and lack of efficient distribution.
Groundwater is India’s silent crisis. Over 60 per cent of irrigation comes from groundwater, and water tables are falling in many regions. A weak monsoon means less recharge, which means farmers must drill deeper, which increases costs and depletes the aquifer further. The cycle is vicious. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events, which means that even in a normal monsoon year, the distribution may be uneven. India needs to invest in rainwater harvesting, aquifer recharge, and efficient irrigation (drip, sprinkler) to break this cycle.
Heatwaves, Forest Fires, and Public Health
El Niño is linked to rising temperatures, with more frequent and intense heatwaves that affect public health, energy demand and labour productivity, especially in outdoor sectors like agriculture and construction. Another emerging concern is the rise in forest fires. Data from early 2026 indicates a sharp increase in both the frequency and intensity of fires, with some regions witnessing an over 80 per cent surge compared to previous years. Areas like the Aravali Range and the Nilgiri Hills have experienced fire incidents, often exacerbated by prolonged hot weather conditions.
Environmental degradation has further amplified this vulnerability. Fragmented forest landscapes, combined with rising temperatures and declining humidity, create conditions where fires can ignite and spread rapidly. The result is not only ecological damage but also a loss of biodiversity and increased carbon emissions.
Heatwaves also affect labour productivity. A worker in agriculture or construction cannot work at full capacity when temperatures exceed 40 degrees Celsius. Studies have shown that a single day of extreme heat can reduce annual earnings by several percentage points for workers in climate-sensitive sectors. The economic cost is real and measurable.
The Geopolitical Dimension: Energy Shocks and Inflation
Compounding these climate-related challenges are geopolitical tensions unfolding across the globe. Conflicts involving major players such as the United States, Israel, and Iran have the potential to disrupt global energy markets. While these tensions are unrelated to El Niño, their economic consequences can intensify its impact. India’s heavy reliance on imports of crude oil makes it particularly sensitive to fluctuations in global energy prices. Any disruption in supply chains can drive up fuel costs, affecting transportation, manufacturing, and overall inflation. When combined with a weak monsoon that pushes up food prices, the result can be a broad-based rise in the cost of living.
This dual pressure—climate-driven supply shocks and geopolitically driven cost increases—creates a complex economic scenario. Farmers may face higher input costs alongside reduced yields, while consumers grapple with rising prices for essential goods. The combined effect can dampen rural demand and strain public finances.
The West Asia crisis has already disrupted the Strait of Hormuz, through which a significant portion of global oil transits. Oil prices have surged. India’s import bill has increased. The government has cut excise duties on petrol and diesel, reducing its revenue. If oil prices remain high and the monsoon is weak, the government will face a fiscal dilemma: raise fuel prices (which fuels inflation) or keep them subsidised (which expands the deficit). Neither option is attractive.
India’s Improved Preparedness: Reasons for Optimism
Yet, there are reasons for cautious optimism. Over the decades, India has strengthened its capacity to manage such challenges. Advances in weather forecasting allow better anticipation of climatic events. Extended irrigation networks reduce dependence on rainfall, while improved reservoir management ensures sufficient water availability. Disaster management systems have been strengthened, and early warning systems for cyclones have saved thousands of lives.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has improved its forecasting accuracy significantly. It now provides district-level forecasts, agro-meteorological advisories, and extended-range predictions. Farmers can access this information through mobile phones. The National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) has conducted drills and prepared plans. States have stockpiled seeds, fertilisers, and medicines.
However, preparedness is not solely the responsibility of governments. Communities and individuals play a crucial role in building resilience through conserving water, using energy efficiently, and adopting sustainable practices. A farmer who installs a drip irrigation system uses less water and is less vulnerable to monsoon failure. A household that harvests rainwater recharges the aquifer and reduces demand on municipal supply. A citizen who uses public transport reduces oil consumption and lowers the trade deficit.
The Way Forward: A Warning, Not a Crisis
It is equally important to maintain perspective. Not every El Niño results in a severe drought, and not every geopolitical conflict leads to economic disruption. India’s experience shows that with strong institutions and proactive planning, uncertainties can be managed effectively. The 1997-98 El Niño, one of the strongest on record, did not cause a drought in India because other climatic factors compensated. The 2019 oil price spike, following attacks on Saudi facilities, did not cause a recession because India had built strategic reserves.
Ultimately, the likely emergence of El Niño in 2026 should be viewed as a warning rather than a crisis. It underscores the need for early action and long-term resilience, as preparedness remains firmly within reach. The government must monitor the monsoon closely. It must ensure that reservoirs are managed optimally. It must release food grains from buffer stocks if prices rise. It must coordinate with states to provide seeds and fertilisers to farmers if sowing is delayed. And it must be ready to import oil if global supplies are disrupted.
The dual challenge of El Niño and global tensions is real, but it is not insurmountable. India has faced similar challenges before. It has the institutions, the experience, and the resources. What it needs is vigilance, coordination, and a commitment to preparedness. The warning has been sounded. The time to act is now.
Q&A: El Niño and Global Tensions – India’s Dual Challenge
Q1: What is El Niño, and how does it affect India’s monsoon?
A1: El Niño refers to the “abnormal warming of surface waters in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.” This warming weakens the atmospheric circulation that pulls moisture-laden winds towards India. The monsoon becomes erratic: rainfall may arrive late, pause unpredictably, or fall in short, intense bursts rather than being evenly distributed. Such variability is “often more damaging than outright deficit” because agriculture depends not just on how much rain falls, but “when and how it does.” A delayed monsoon disrupts sowing cycles; prolonged dry spells followed by sudden downpours damage crops and reduce yields. India’s historical experience includes major El Niño years (1965-66, 1972-73, 1987-88, 2002, 2009, 2015-16) associated with drought-like conditions. However, the relationship is “not always deterministic” (the 1997-98 strong El Niño did not cause a severe drought). The article states: “El Niño increases risk, but does not guarantee a crisis.”
Q2: What are the cascading economic effects of a weak monsoon?
A2: The article outlines a chain: El Niño leads to delayed monsoon → sowing postponed → crop duration compressed → yields lower → farmers’ incomes fall → rural demand for manufactured goods declines → industrial growth slows → government revenues fall → fiscal deficit expands. The first and most immediate impact is on agriculture, with crops like rice, pulses, and oilseeds particularly sensitive. Water resources face parallel stress: reservoirs, rivers, and groundwater levels depend on monsoon replenishment. A deficient monsoon leads to water shortages affecting both rural (drinking water and irrigation access) and urban centres (rationing). Groundwater is India’s “silent crisis”—over 60 per cent of irrigation comes from groundwater, and weak monsoon leads to less recharge, forcing farmers to drill deeper, increasing costs and depleting aquifers further.
Q3: What other climate-related risks are associated with El Niño beyond rainfall?
A3: El Niño is linked to rising temperatures, causing “more frequent and intense heatwaves” that affect public health, energy demand, and labour productivity in outdoor sectors (agriculture, construction). Another emerging concern is the rise in forest fires. Data from early 2026 shows a sharp increase in frequency and intensity, with some regions witnessing “over 80 per cent surge” compared to previous years. Areas like the Aravali Range and Nilgiri Hills have experienced fire incidents exacerbated by prolonged hot weather. Environmental degradation has amplified vulnerability: fragmented forest landscapes combined with rising temperatures and declining humidity create conditions where fires ignite and spread rapidly, causing ecological damage, biodiversity loss, and increased carbon emissions.
Q4: How do geopolitical tensions compound the climate challenge for India?
A4: Conflicts involving the US, Israel, and Iran threaten to disrupt global energy markets. While these tensions are “unrelated to El Niño, their economic consequences can intensify its impact.” India’s “heavy reliance on imports of crude oil” makes it particularly sensitive to energy price fluctuations. Supply chain disruptions drive up fuel costs, affecting transportation, manufacturing, and inflation. This creates “dual pressure—climate-driven supply shocks and geopolitically driven cost increases.” Farmers face higher input costs alongside reduced yields; consumers face rising prices for essential goods. The combined effect can “dampen rural demand and strain public finances.” The article notes that if oil prices remain high and the monsoon is weak, the government faces a fiscal dilemma: raise fuel prices (fueling inflation) or keep them subsidised (expanding the deficit).
Q5: What steps has India taken to improve preparedness, and what further actions are recommended?
A5: India has strengthened its capacity through:
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Advances in weather forecasting (district-level forecasts, agro-meteorological advisories, extended-range predictions accessible via mobile phones).
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Expanded irrigation networks (Pradhan Mantri Krishi Sinchayee Yojana) and improved reservoir management.
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Strengthened disaster management systems and early warning systems (e.g., for cyclones).
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Strategic petroleum reserves built after the 2019 oil price spike.
Recommended further actions include: -
Crop diversification (millets, pulses, oilseeds are less water-intensive than paddy/sugarcane) with market access and price support.
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Investment in rainwater harvesting, aquifer recharge, and efficient irrigation (drip, sprinkler).
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Renewable energy adoption to reduce dependence on imported fossil fuels and mitigate economic impact of global tensions.
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Community-level resilience through water conservation, energy efficiency, and sustainable practices (drip irrigation, rainwater harvesting, public transport).
The article concludes: “Ultimately, the likely emergence of El Niño in 2026 should be viewed as a warning rather than a crisis… preparedness remains firmly within reach.” The warning has been sounded; “the time to act is now.” India has the institutions, experience, and resources. What it needs is “vigilance, coordination, and a commitment to preparedness.”
