A Chance to Rebuild an Old Neighbourhood, India’s Delicate Dance with Bangladesh’s New Government
After the recent elections in Bangladesh, it is good to see India reconsidering the stand it had taken during Muhammad Yunus’s rule. We may now be on the way to regaining our only steadfast friend in the neighbourhood, as the Indian establishment has swung out of its fixation with Sheikh Hasina and accepted the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) as India’s best bet.
It took more than a year for the Indian government to view the BNP with more kindness despite the party’s anti-India track record. As the polls were announced, backdoor channels opened up with both the BNP and the Jamaat-e-Islami. The two parties’ old alliance broke down, and circumstances forced the BNP to move to the centre-left and take on Yunus and the extremists directly.
The electoral results surprised even sharp watchers. The BNP and a few minor allies swept the polls, securing 50 per cent of the vote and winning 212 of 299 seats. This revealed the voters’ maturity and their almost complete rejection of the Gen Z leaders who had toppled Hasina. Jamaat-e-Islami’s hopes of seizing power were dashed as it could secure only 68 seats, with the student-led National Citizen Party (NCP) managing just six.
The Yunus Interregnum
To be fair to Yunus, one must appreciate that he undertook a Herculean task. During his interim rule, he reformed the civil service, police, judiciary, the Election Commission, and regulatory bodies, and started rebuilding national institutions. The peaceful conduct of the first fair elections in years is proof of his success, even as he floundered on law and order and went after India.
His “July Charter,” a package of 84 reform proposals, was endorsed by all parties except the banned Awami League. Seventy per cent of voters endorsed this charter in the constitutional referendum, even as most rejected Yunus, the NCP, and the Jamaat. This suggests that Bangladeshi voters were capable of distinguishing between constitutional reforms they supported and political leaders they did not trust.
The BNP’s Challenge
After returning from London, Tarique Rahman had less than six weeks to take over the BNP, understand the turbulent times, select candidates, and campaign for the February 12 election. That the party managed such a decisive victory under these circumstances is remarkable. But it also means that Rahman, who has never held public office, faces a steep learning curve.
He needs India to normalise trade and find ways to draw more Indian investment. India, for its part, needs to have patience and not be seen too prominently until the anger in Bangladesh subsides. The impasse over Sheikh Hasina, who remains in India, must be resolved at the earliest. Visas have to be opened up immediately for Bangladeshis to come to India for medical treatment, education, and tourism. Border trade must return to normal levels, and the balance of trade must be made fairer.
The Jamaat Phenomenon
The Jamaat’s ascent to respectability is seen in how one out of three Bangladeshis voted for it. This could be a reaction to Hasina’s authoritarian rule. The geography of voting behaviour, however, points to the Jamaat winning mainly in the western districts that face the Indian border, where many refugees settled and nursed grievances against India.
More tangibly, the cross-border trade that sustains much of the economy of these areas has been shattered. The hardening of border checks and the closure of trading posts and markets hurt them badly. Under different circumstances, the Islamists may have won even fewer seats. The votes of women and Awami League supporters who swallowed their hatred of the BNP may have helped keep the extremists out.
The Jamaat underwent an incredible metamorphosis—from those who aided the Pakistan Army in its genocide in 1971 to arguably the cleanest alternative in Bangladesh’s corrupt political quagmire. The Yunus regime helped in this transformation, and the student-led National Citizen Party (NCP) joined Jamaat’s 11-party alliance. This is a remarkable shift that will have long-term implications for Bangladesh’s politics.
The Voters’ Maturity
Our postulate that the Hanafi Muslim Bangladeshis and secular voters would not be swayed by the lure of the more Wahhabi Pakistan- and Arab-supported Islamic Right was proved correct. Bangladeshi voters demonstrated a sophisticated understanding of their interests and a willingness to reject extremism even when given the opportunity to embrace it.
This maturity is encouraging. It suggests that despite the turbulence of the past year, the basic fabric of Bangladeshi society remains intact. Voters could distinguish between the constitutional reforms they supported and the political leaders they distrusted. They could reject the Gen Z leaders who had toppled Hasina while endorsing the July Charter those leaders had championed.
India’s Delicate Balance
For India, the path forward requires careful calibration. There are no permanent friends or enemies in international relations, and India cannot afford to lose Bangladesh to Pakistan. The new government in Dhaka must be engaged constructively, but with patience and sensitivity.
The BNP’s anti-India track record is a concern, but parties in power often moderate their positions. Rahman has already signalled his willingness to engage with India by inviting Prime Minister Modi to his swearing-in ceremony. The response from Delhi has been positive, with Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar visiting Dhaka and Modi offering congratulations.
But much work remains. The Hasina impasse must be resolved in a way that does not create a permanent irritant in bilateral relations. Trade must be normalised and expanded. People-to-people contacts must be restored. And India must demonstrate that it can be a reliable partner, not just to the Awami League, but to whichever government the Bangladeshi people elect.
Conclusion: A Neighbourhood Rebuilt
The India-Bangladesh relationship has weathered many storms. From the liberation war of 1971 to the recent political turbulence, the ties between the two countries have proven resilient. The challenge now is to rebuild trust, normalise relations, and create a framework for cooperation that can outlast any single government.
This will require patience, wisdom, and a long-term perspective from both sides. India must resist the temptation to interfere or to favour one party over another. Bangladesh must recognise that its prosperity and security are inextricably linked to its relationship with its largest neighbour.
There are no permanent friends or enemies in international relations. But there are permanent interests. For both India and Bangladesh, those interests point in the same direction: peace, prosperity, and stability in the neighbourhood. The opportunity to rebuild is here. It must not be squandered.
Q&A: Unpacking India’s Bangladesh Calculus
Q1: What was significant about the BNP’s electoral victory in Bangladesh?
The BNP secured 212 of 299 seats with 50% of the vote, a decisive victory that surprised even sharp watchers. The party won despite Tarique Rahman having less than six weeks to campaign after returning from exile. The results showed voters’ maturity in almost completely rejecting the Gen Z leaders who had toppled Hasina, while still endorsing the July Charter reforms. The BNP’s victory ends the Awami League’s long dominance and resets the political landscape.
Q2: How did the Jamaat-e-Islami perform, and what explains its support?
Jamaat secured 68 seats, with one out of three Bangladeshis voting for it. This represents an incredible metamorphosis for a party that aided the Pakistan Army in the 1971 genocide. The support was concentrated in western districts facing India, where refugees settled and cross-border trade has been disrupted. The vote could also reflect a reaction to Hasina’s authoritarian rule. However, the fact that two-thirds of voters rejected Jamaat suggests the secular and Hanafi Muslim majority remains intact.
Q3: What was Muhammad Yunus’s role and legacy from the interim period?
Yunus undertook a Herculean task, reforming the civil service, police, judiciary, Election Commission, and regulatory bodies. He started rebuilding national institutions and oversaw the first fair elections in years. His “July Charter” of 84 reform proposals was endorsed by 70% of voters in a referendum, even as voters rejected Yunus himself and his political allies. His success in conducting peaceful, credible elections is undeniable, even as he struggled with law and order and adopted anti-India positions.
Q4: What challenges does new Prime Minister Tarique Rahman face?
Rahman has never held public office and had minimal time to prepare for the election. He needs to normalise trade with India, attract Indian investment, and restore cross-border commerce that sustains many border districts. He must also navigate the Jamaat’s presence in parliament and address the grievances of voters who supported extremists. The impasse over Sheikh Hasina’s presence in India must be resolved, and visas for Bangladeshis need to be restored to pre-crisis levels.
Q5: How should India approach the new Bangladesh government?
India needs patience and sensitivity. It should not be seen too prominently until anti-India sentiment subsides. The Hasina impasse must be resolved quickly. Visas for medical treatment, education, and tourism should be reopened. Border trade must return to normal levels with fairer terms. India must demonstrate it can be a reliable partner to whichever government Bangladeshis elect, not just to the Awami League. As the writer notes, there are no permanent friends or enemies—India cannot afford to lose Bangladesh to Pakistan.
