The BNP’s Delicate Dance, Challenges Ahead for Bangladesh’s New Government
After nearly two decades in the political wilderness, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) has returned to power with a decisive mandate. Tarique Rahman, son of former president and military strongman General Ziaur Rahman and former prime minister Khaleda Zia, took oath as the Prime Minister of Bangladesh on Tuesday. The BNP secured an absolute majority with 216 seats, meaning it will not require any other party’s support to govern.
This electoral victory marks a significant turning point for Bangladesh, which has been in a state of uncertainty, political turbulence, wanton violence, and complete lawlessness since Sheikh Hasina’s ouster in August 2024. With a new regime in place, the hope is that a new and stable Bangladesh will emerge. But the challenges confronting Rahman are formidable, and the path ahead is fraught with complexity.
The Jamaat Factor
The BNP’s absolute majority is significant because it implies the party will not require the support of the Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI), which has done well to secure 76 seats. This independence from JeI gives Rahman greater flexibility in governance, but it does not eliminate the Islamist party’s influence.
The JeI was an active partner in the BNP-led regime under Khaleda Zia during 2001-2006, with two senior JeI leaders holding important ministerial positions. This time, the party may not be in the government, but it will have a substantial presence on the floor of parliament. The JeI is expected to step up its rhetoric and, in all likelihood, pressure the BNP government by drawing attention to issues such as corruption and nepotism.
Judging by the JeI’s body language, it is likely to bring other Islamic parties under its umbrella to proliferate Islamic fundamentalism. In other words, the party is unlikely to let the BNP breathe easy. A politically empowered JeI will also steadily intensify its campaign against former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, as many of its leaders were put on trial and hanged by the Hasina government for collaboration with Pakistan during the 1971 Liberation War.
For Rahman, managing this relationship will be a delicate balancing act. He cannot afford to alienate the JeI entirely, given its electoral strength and grassroots influence. But neither can he allow the party to dictate the terms of governance or push an agenda that alienates other communities or invites international condemnation.
The Law and Order Challenge
Rahman’s most immediate and pressing challenge is the restoration of law and order. During the interim regime of Muhammad Yunus, Bangladesh witnessed numerous political killings, the vandalisation of buildings and memorials—including Sheikh Mujibur Rahman’s house—attacks on places of worship of Hindus, the freeing of criminals from prisons, and the looting of armouries. The police were reluctant to use force to maintain public order.
This breakdown of law and order has profound implications. It erodes public confidence in the state’s ability to protect its citizens. It creates an environment of fear and uncertainty that discourages investment and economic activity. It allows criminal elements to operate with impunity. And it targets minority communities, particularly Hindus, who feel increasingly isolated and vulnerable.
Rahman has no direct experience in administration, though he was known as the principal confidant of his mother, Khaleda Zia, during her two terms as prime minister (1991-1996 and 2001-2006). Further, he has been out of Bangladesh for the last 17 years, living in exile in the United Kingdom. He will need help from party veterans, who may be committed to the party ideology but lack the administrative acumen or charisma to back him effectively.
Reining in communal forces and religious extremists should figure high on Rahman’s “to-do list.” The confidence of the much-dismayed and isolated Hindu minority must be restored. Without this, Bangladesh cannot claim to be a truly inclusive democracy.
The India Question
India has played its cards carefully. External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar made a trip to Dhaka when Begum Khaleda Zia passed away and met Rahman. Prime Minister Narendra Modi was quick to congratulate Rahman on his victory, and Rahman reciprocated by inviting the Indian Prime Minister to his swearing-in ceremony. Importantly, Rahman conspicuously avoided any major anti-India rhetoric during his election campaign.
This is a positive start. But the past casts a long shadow. During previous BNP regimes, insurgents from India’s Northeast found a haven in Bangladesh. Pakistani and Chinese agencies facilitated activities detrimental to Indian security interests. Undesirable commercial deals were carried out with anti-India hostile elements being the principal benefactors.
Now that the BNP has come to stay, New Delhi must engage the party constructively so that India’s security interests are not compromised. Rahman will do well to reciprocate in equal measure. Bangladesh needs India in the larger geopolitical context as a proven and tested ally. Multiple potential areas of bilateral cooperation may be reinvigorated. It should be part of Bangladesh’s collective political wisdom to reset ties for peace and tranquility in this combustible region.
The Pakistan and China Dynamics
Pakistan has considerably warmed up to Bangladesh during the Yunus rule, with high-level exchanges of visits in multiple sectors, including military, science and technology, and other crucial fields. It is highly unlikely that Rahman, who was in exile for many years in the UK, will immediately sever this developing bonhomie.
Pakistan will step up its efforts in a more robust manner to capitalise on the BNP’s electoral victory. It is expected to further woo Rahman and the BNP, essentially to counter the growing US influence on Bangladesh. Pakistan sees Bangladesh as a potential partner in its competition with India and a means to expand its footprint in South Asia.
China is also deeply invested in Bangladesh. In the very recent past, the Chinese ambassador in Dhaka stated that Beijing will not allow any foreign country to disrupt the China-Bangladesh relationship. China has made significant infrastructure investments in Bangladesh under the Belt and Road Initiative and views the country as a key node in its regional strategy.
For Rahman, navigating these competing pressures will require skill and strategic clarity. Bangladesh cannot afford to alienate any of these major powers, but neither can it become a pawn in their rivalries. The country’s interests are best served by maintaining balanced relationships with all.
The Economic Agenda
Beyond the political and security challenges, Rahman faces a daunting economic agenda. The instability of the past year has taken a toll on investment and growth. The industrial sector has been disrupted. Exports have suffered. The fiscal situation is strained.
Bangladesh’s remarkable economic progress over the past two decades—its emergence as a garment manufacturing powerhouse, its improvements in social indicators, its graduation from least developed country status—is now at risk. Restoring investor confidence, stabilising the economy, and putting growth back on track must be top priorities.
This will require sound economic management, which in turn requires capable administrators. Rahman must assemble a team of competent ministers and officials who can tackle these challenges effectively.
Conclusion: A Moment of Possibility and Peril
The BNP’s return to power after nearly two decades is a moment of both possibility and peril for Bangladesh. Possibility, because a new government offers a chance to restore stability, rebuild institutions, and chart a new direction. Peril, because the challenges are immense and the margin for error is small.
Rahman must restore law and order, manage the Jamaat factor, reassure minority communities, navigate complex international relationships, and revive the economy—all while learning the ropes of administration after 17 years in exile. It is a daunting agenda.
But it is not impossible. Bangladesh has overcome enormous challenges before. Its people are resilient. Its institutions, though battered, remain standing. And its friends in the international community, including India, have a stake in its success.
The hope is that a new and stable Bangladesh will emerge from the turbulence of the past year. The responsibility for realising that hope now rests with Tarique Rahman and the BNP.
Q&A: Unpacking the BNP’s Challenges
Q1: What is the significance of the BNP winning an absolute majority in the election?
The BNP’s absolute majority (216 seats) means it can govern without the support of any other party, particularly the Jamaat-e-Islami. This gives the government greater flexibility and independence in policymaking. However, it does not eliminate the JeI’s influence, as the party will have a substantial presence in parliament (76 seats) and can pressure the government on various issues. The JeI’s strong performance also boosts its morale and gives it space to reinforce its ideology.
Q2: What are the main law and order challenges facing the new government?
The interim Yunus regime saw a severe breakdown of law and order, including political killings, vandalisation of buildings and memorials, attacks on Hindu places of worship, freeing of criminals from prisons, and looting of armouries. Police were reluctant to use force. The new government must restore public confidence in the state’s ability to protect citizens, rein in communal forces and religious extremists, and reassure minority communities, particularly Hindus, who feel increasingly isolated and vulnerable.
Q3: How has India engaged with the new BNP government, and what are the key concerns?
India has engaged constructively, with External Affairs Minister Jaishankar visiting Dhaka and Prime Minister Modi congratulating Rahman promptly. Rahman reciprocated by inviting Modi to his swearing-in and avoided anti-India rhetoric during the campaign. However, concerns remain based on past BNP regimes, when insurgents from India’s Northeast found haven in Bangladesh, and Pakistani and Chinese agencies facilitated activities detrimental to Indian security. New Delhi must engage the BNP to ensure these concerns are addressed.
Q4: How will the new government navigate relations with Pakistan and China?
Pakistan has warmed to Bangladesh during the Yunus rule with high-level exchanges and is expected to further woo the BNP to counter US influence. China has also deepened its engagement, with its ambassador stating that Beijing will not allow any foreign country to disrupt China-Bangladesh relations. Rahman must balance these relationships carefully, ensuring Bangladesh does not become a pawn in great power rivalries while maintaining beneficial ties with all.
Q5: What economic challenges does the new government face?
The instability of the past year has disrupted industrial production, affected exports, and strained public finances. Investor confidence has been shaken. Bangladesh’s remarkable economic progress, including its emergence as a garment manufacturing powerhouse and graduation from least developed country status, is at risk. The new government must restore confidence, stabilise the economy, and put growth back on track, which requires sound economic management and competent administrators.
