Will US Midterm Elections Alter the Balance of Power? The Stakes for America and the World
The US Supreme Court ruling striking down tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act was a significant check on presidential power, but it may only be a temporary respite. In response, President Trump has imposed a global tariff of 15 per cent under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, citing “large and serious” balance-of-payments deficits. More sector-specific and permanent tariffs under Section 301 against “unfair trade practices” can be imposed but procedural formalities could take months. Even this 15 per cent tariff under Section 122 may be challenged in court. They have to prove “a balance of payment crisis” exists.
The Supreme Court ruling could be a turning point in the political fortunes of both parties as they compete for control of the House and the Senate in November. Early polling this year had shown that nearly 75 per cent of Americans held the tariffs responsible for increase in the cost of living and drop in hiring. Republicans will find it hard to defend a policy they supported that was not legal. Democrats who were already pointing to executive overreach will project the court’s ruling as vindication. They would run on “returning” the $175 billion or $200 billion revenue from tariffs collected illegally to the small businesses and farmers, traditionally the GOP base.
The Tariff Time Bomb
The 15 per cent tariff would expire in July 2026 forcing a Congressional vote just at the run up to the elections. Vulnerable Republicans in manufacturing states will have to decide between supporting the President’s agenda and addressing the “cost-of-living” concerns of their constituents.
This is a classic political dilemma. Do they stand with a president who remains popular with the party base but whose policies are hurting their constituents? Or do they break ranks and risk primary challenges from Trump loyalists? The timing could not be worse for Republicans seeking re-election.
Why the World Is Watching
The November midterm election is attracting global attention. The driver is the disruption caused by the current Administration in geo-politics and world order. Change has been frenetic and volatile. It has challenged the world. The midterms are likely to alter the balance of power in Congress and consequently US foreign and trade policy.
In the two-party system, the GOP now controls all three branches of government—executive, judicial, and legislative. This consolidation of power has emboldened aggressive actions, from punitive tariffs to coercive diplomacy to threats of annexation. A change in control of even one chamber could significantly constrain the president’s ability to pursue such policies.
The Constitutional Design
The midterm elections were conceived by the US Constitution as an instrument of checks and balances. The objective was to ensure stability in federal governance and at the same time to remain responsive to changing public opinion by establishing different term lengths for members of Congress. The entire House of Representatives is up for election every even-numbered year. Although members of the Senate serve for six years, one-third of the Senate is up for election every two years. By keeping two-thirds of the Senate stable for six years it was intended that their experience and policy familiarity would lend stability should a new President be elected.
Since the President serves a four-year term, an election cycle occurs at the middle of a President’s term. The US Congress has totally 535 voting members, with 435 in the House and 100 in the Senate. The number of House seats allotted for each state depends on its population as per the recent census. In the Senate each state has 2 seats.
The Historical Pattern
Although the midterms are statewide and local to the districts, they have become a referendum on the incumbent president. Since World War II, the president’s party has lost an average of 26 seats in the House and four seats in the Senate per midterm cycle.
Recent results have shown that voters are more likely to vote based on their opinion of the president rather than the local candidate. Since 2000, there have been six midterm election cycles. The historical pattern of the president’s party losing seats in Congress has largely held, with 2002 being the only outlier, where the President’s party gained seats in both chambers due to the 9/11 attacks.
The Forecast
House seat losses strongly correlate to the President’s approval rating. Presidents with approval ratings below 50 per cent typically see much steeper losses. The President’s favourability is currently at 35 per cent. On key issues like immigration, economy, tariffs, and foreign policy, his disapproval is at more than 50 per cent. Therefore it looks more likely that the Democrats would control the House come November.
The most likely outcome in the Senate is a narrow Republican majority (51 or 52 seats), but a Democratic majority is no longer being ruled out by major forecasters. For Democrats to gain control, they would need to hold all their current seats and flip several Republican-held seats. The Vice President serves as the tie-breaking vote. In the Senate, Republicans have the advantage because most of the 22 GOP seats up for election are in states Donald Trump won by 10 points in 2024. This gives Republicans a high “floor”.
The Democratic momentum stems from the 2026 polling that indicates Independent voters trending toward Democrats. A “Blue Wave” could see Democrats potentially sweep the “Toss-Up” seats and control of the Senate.
The Deeper Divide
Aspirants for office are tapping into the sentiments of people who feel left behind. It is no longer the right vs the left but the top vs the bottom. Americans across party lines agree that the wealth gap between the top 1 per cent and the rest is a major issue. They believe the President’s policies favour the wealthy and recent tariffs have made items like food and housing less affordable.
The top 1 per cent own 50 per cent of the stock market. The bottom half of population owns just 1.1 per cent. Roughly 81 per cent of all Americans, including 66 per cent of Republicans, believe that the rich in the US have too much power and influence. And this was before they saw the Epstein files.
Other Imponderables
There are other imponderables besides the impact of the Supreme Court striking down the 2025 tariffs, that could upend the election forecast. Both the GOP and Democrats are attempting to ‘redistrict’ state maps to favour their party. The President wants to nationalise elections although the Constitution empowers the states to conduct elections. Attempts are afoot to seize voter rolls in an attempt to “purge” them. Banning of mail-in ballots on suspicion of fraud is being touted although none has been proven. The talk of armed guards at polling booths would diminish voter turnout in view of the recent Minneapolis fiasco.
Conclusion: A Pivotal Moment
November will determine whether 2027 brings a predictable path forward or a steeper drop on the 2026 roller coaster. The stakes could not be higher—for America and for the world. A change in control of Congress would not only alter domestic policy but also reshape America’s engagement with the world. Allies and adversaries alike are watching closely.
Q&A: Unpacking the US Midterm Elections
Q1: Why are the 2026 midterm elections significant globally?
The current Administration has caused significant disruption in geopolitics and world order through punitive tariffs, coercive diplomacy, and threats of annexation. The midterms will determine whether this aggressive approach continues or is constrained. A change in control of Congress could fundamentally alter US foreign and trade policy, affecting allies and adversaries worldwide.
Q2: What is the historical pattern for midterm elections?
Since World War II, the president’s party has lost an average of 26 House seats and 4 Senate seats per midterm cycle. Since 2000, this pattern has largely held, with 2002 being the only exception due to 9/11. Voters increasingly base their midterm vote on their opinion of the president rather than local candidates, making these elections a referendum on the incumbent.
Q3: What do current polls suggest about the outcome?
President Trump’s favourability is at 35%, with disapproval exceeding 50% on key issues. This strongly correlates with House seat losses. Democrats are favoured to take control of the House. The Senate is closer—Republicans have an advantage because most GOP seats up for election are in Trump-won states, but Independent voters trending Democratic could create a “Blue Wave” sweeping toss-up seats.
Q4: What role do tariffs play in the election?
The 15% tariff imposed under Section 122 expires in July 2026, forcing a Congressional vote just before elections. Vulnerable Republicans must choose between supporting Trump’s agenda and addressing constituent concerns about cost-of-living. Democrats are campaigning on returning the $175-200 billion in illegally collected tariff revenue to small businesses and farmers—traditional GOP base voters.
Q5: What other factors could affect the outcome?
Several imponderables could upend forecasts: redistricting battles favouring either party; attempts to purge voter rolls; banning mail-in ballots without proven fraud; and fears of armed guards at polling booths suppressing turnout. The deep wealth divide—top 1% owns 50% of stock market while bottom half owns just 1.1%—is driving populist sentiment across party lines, with 81% of Americans believing the rich have too much power.
