Old Mistakes, New Defeats, What the Rajya Sabha Polls Reveal About the Opposition’s Organisational Crisis
The Opposition’s Shocking Losses in Bihar and Odisha, and Its Narrow Victory in Haryana, Expose a Deeper Problem—One That Cannot Be Blamed on Money or Horse-Trading Alone
The Opposition’s shocking losses in the Rajya Sabha polls in Odisha and Bihar, and its narrow victory in Haryana—if losing nine votes and winning by just one, after suffering both crossvoting and disqualification of votes, can be called a victory—hold some insights. These are not merely electoral defeats. They are symptoms of a deeper organisational malaise that has afflicted the Opposition for years, and that shows no signs of abating.
The Opposition’s slide in national politics is not just ideological or electoral, but also organisational. Since its relatively stellar performance in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, the Opposition has stumbled again and again—prominently in Haryana, Maharashtra, and Bihar—but refuses to learn lessons in setting its own house in order. The pattern is consistent: overconfidence, internal squabbles, failure to anticipate the ruling party’s moves, and a lack of discipline that allows lawmakers to break ranks when it matters most.
The Haryana Lesson
The Congress was so confident of winning Haryana that it didn’t bother resolving a battle between its senior leaders, ultimately costing it the state. This is not hindsight; it was evident at the time. The factional divisions within the state unit were an open secret. Senior leaders were more focused on positioning themselves for the spoils of victory than on ensuring that victory was achieved. The result was a defeat that should have been avoidable.
Seventeen months after that loss, the Opposition has still not regrouped in Haryana. The same divisions that cost it the assembly election resurfaced in the Rajya Sabha polls, with longtime loyalists and young lawmakers breaking ranks to undercut party candidates. The message is clear: without internal discipline, even a strong electoral position can be squandered.
The Maharashtra Disaster
The Maha Vikas Aghadi was so consumed in dividing up the spoils of imagined poll victories in Maharashtra that it couldn’t even finalise a seat-sharing agreement. The coalition that had come together with such promise after the 2019 elections dissolved into acrimony and infighting. Leaders who should have been focused on presenting a united front against the ruling BJP were instead jockeying for position, negotiating for more seats, and publicly sniping at each other.
The result was predictable: a fragmented Opposition, a demoralised cadre, and a victory for the BJP that was far more comprehensive than it should have been. The Maha Vikas Aghadi’s implosion was not the result of superior BJP strategy alone; it was self-inflicted.
The Bihar Brawl
In Bihar, personal conflict between the two biggest leaders of the Opposition hamstrung its campaign, leading to another drubbing. The rivalry between the leaders was not a secret; it played out in public, with each side questioning the other’s commitment and credibility. The campaign never gained coherence, and the Opposition’s messaging was muddled. When the results came, the defeat was crushing.
This pattern is not new. The Opposition has repeatedly failed to learn from its mistakes. After Haryana, it did not resolve its internal differences. After Maharashtra, it did not establish functional coalition mechanisms. After Bihar, it did not address the personal animosities that undermine collective action.
The Organisational Deficit
The Opposition will blame money and the entrapments of power, but its organisational chiefs must ask themselves how they can be caught unaware in state after state, even as the BJP pinches votes from under their noses. The ruling party has its own advantages—financial resources, the machinery of government, the ability to offer inducements—but the Opposition’s defeats cannot be explained by these factors alone.
The fundamental problem is organisational. The Congress and its allies lack the internal discipline that the BJP has cultivated over decades. They lack the cadre-based structures that can be mobilised at short notice. They lack the mechanisms for resolving internal disputes without public acrimony. They lack the ability to enforce party discipline when lawmakers are tempted to cross the floor.
These are not insurmountable problems. They can be addressed with sustained effort, with a willingness to put organisational needs above individual ambitions, with the kind of patient institution-building that the BJP has invested in. But the Opposition has shown no sign of undertaking this work.
The Rajya Sabha Problem
When it comes to Rajya Sabha polls, crossvoting and horse-trading have been endemic for decades. The complicated design and formula for the Upper House polls and the absence of an anti-defection law (in the context of elections to the Upper House) have enabled the ruling party of the day to strongarm lawmakers and push its candidates through. In indirect polls, such practices might make for thrilling political drama. But there is no escaping the fact that such practices hurt the credibility of parties and the election process.
The Rajya Sabha was envisioned to give a voice to the states. It was designed as a house of elders, a check on the more populist impulses of the Lok Sabha, a forum where states could be represented regardless of their population size. Instead, it has become a arena where the ruling party’s numerical superiority is translated into a commanding majority in the Upper House, and where the Opposition’s ability to win seats depends less on its electoral strength than on its ability to prevent its own members from defecting.
The absence of an anti-defection law for Rajya Sabha elections is a structural flaw that has been exploited for decades. Lawmakers can vote against their party’s candidate without losing their membership in the legislature. The only consequence is political—and for many, the inducements offered by the ruling party outweigh the risk of party discipline.
The Credibility Deficit
These practices hurt the credibility of parties and the election process. When voters see their elected representatives crossing over to support the ruling party’s candidates, they lose faith in the political system. When parties cannot deliver the votes of their own members, they lose authority over their legislators. When the outcome of elections is determined not by the preferences of voters but by the ability of the ruling party to buy votes, democracy itself is diminished.
The Opposition’s complaints about horse-trading are justified, but they also ring hollow when the Opposition itself engages in the same practices when it is in power. Crossvoting and inducements are not the monopoly of any one party. The problem is systemic, and it requires systemic solutions.
The Need for Reform
The Rajya Sabha deserves a more dignified and transparent election process. Several reforms could help. First, the introduction of open ballot voting, as already exists for some legislative elections, would make it harder for lawmakers to vote against their party’s instructions without being identified. The secrecy of the ballot currently shields crossvoters from accountability.
Second, extending the anti-defection law to Rajya Sabha elections would provide a disincentive for lawmakers to cross the floor. If voting against the party’s candidate meant losing membership in the legislature, the inducements offered would need to be correspondingly larger—and fewer lawmakers would be willing to take the risk.
Third, the electoral formula itself could be simplified. The current system, with its complex calculations and multiple rounds of voting, creates opportunities for manipulation. A simpler system, perhaps based on proportional representation with a single transferable vote, would be harder to game.
Fourth, campaign finance reform would reduce the role of money in elections. The vast sums spent on inducing lawmakers to cross the floor are not a necessary feature of democracy; they are a corruption of it. Limiting the amount that can be spent, requiring disclosure of donors, and providing public funding for elections would all help.
The Opposition’s Responsibility
But reforms will not come from the ruling party alone. The Opposition must also play its part. It must demonstrate that it can govern its own members, that it can resolve internal disputes without public acrimony, that it can present a coherent alternative to the voters. It cannot expect voters to entrust it with power if it cannot manage its own affairs.
The Opposition’s losses in the Rajya Sabha polls are a wake-up call. They are a reminder that electoral success requires more than good slogans and a strong candidate. It requires organisation, discipline, and the ability to hold one’s own members together when it matters most.
The pattern is clear. The Opposition stumbles, loses, fails to learn, and stumbles again. If it continues on this path, the defeats will not stop. The Rajya Sabha is just one arena. There will be more assembly elections, more parliamentary contests, more opportunities for the ruling party to exploit the Opposition’s weaknesses.
Conclusion: A Moment of Reckoning
The Rajya Sabha polls should be a moment of reckoning for the Opposition. Not because the results themselves are catastrophic—the numbers in the Upper House can be managed—but because they reveal a deeper truth about the state of the Opposition. It is not just losing; it is losing in ways that reflect fundamental organisational weaknesses.
The blame game is not useful. Blaming money, blaming the ruling party, blaming the electoral system—all of this may be true, but it does not address the core problem. The Opposition must look inward. It must ask itself why its members break ranks, why its leaders cannot work together, why it cannot learn from its defeats.
These are not easy questions. They require humility, self-reflection, and a willingness to change. But if the Opposition cannot answer them, it will continue to lose. And the losses will not be limited to Rajya Sabha seats.
Q&A: Unpacking the Rajya Sabha Polls and the Opposition’s Crisis
Q1: What were the key results of the recent Rajya Sabha polls?
A: The Opposition suffered shocking losses in Odisha and Bihar, where it expected to win seats. In Haryana, it won by a narrow margin—losing nine votes and winning by just one, after suffering both crossvoting and disqualification of votes. These results exposed the Opposition’s organisational weaknesses, as longtime loyalists and young lawmakers broke ranks to undercut party candidates across states.
Q2: What pattern of failure does the author identify in the Opposition’s recent electoral performance?
A: The Opposition has repeatedly stumbled since its relatively strong performance in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. In Haryana, overconfidence and unresolved leadership battles cost it the state; 17 months later, it has still not regrouped. In Maharashtra, the Maha Vikas Aghadi was so consumed with dividing spoils of imagined victory that it couldn’t finalise seat-sharing. In Bihar, personal conflict between the two biggest Opposition leaders hamstrung the campaign. The pattern is consistent: internal squabbles, failure to learn, and repeated defeats.
Q3: Why does the author argue that the Opposition’s problems are organisational rather than just ideological or electoral?
A: The Opposition lacks the internal discipline that the BJP has cultivated over decades. It lacks cadre-based structures that can be mobilised at short notice, mechanisms for resolving internal disputes without public acrimony, and the ability to enforce party discipline when lawmakers are tempted to cross the floor. These organisational deficits cannot be blamed solely on the ruling party’s advantages in money and government machinery.
Q4: What structural flaws in Rajya Sabha elections enable crossvoting and horse-trading?
A: The Rajya Sabha has a complicated electoral design and formula, and there is no anti-defection law for Upper House elections. Lawmakers can vote against their party’s candidate without losing their membership in the legislature. The secrecy of the ballot also shields crossvoters from accountability. These flaws have been exploited for decades, allowing the ruling party to strongarm lawmakers and push its candidates through.
Q5: What reforms does the author suggest to make Rajya Sabha elections more dignified and transparent?
A: Several reforms are proposed: introducing open ballot voting to make crossvoting identifiable; extending the anti-defection law to Rajya Sabha elections, so voting against the party’s candidate would mean losing legislative membership; simplifying the electoral formula to reduce opportunities for manipulation; and implementing campaign finance reform to reduce the role of money in elections. However, the author notes that reforms will not come from the ruling party alone; the Opposition must also demonstrate it can govern its own members.
