Navigating the Multipolar Future, Trade, Technology, and the Global Contest of Power
Introduction
In an increasingly volatile and uncertain world, the strategic undercurrents of trade, technology, and geopolitical alignment are reshaping the global economic and political landscape. As major powers engage in economic brinkmanship and artificial intelligence (AI) becomes the new arena for technological supremacy, small and medium economies find themselves walking a precarious tightrope between competing hegemonies.
This article explores the multilayered dimensions of this transformation—rooted in U.S. protectionism, China’s rise, the fragmentation of the global order, and the uncertain promises of AI. Drawing insights from the original commentary by Andrew Sheng, it expands the narrative into a comprehensive analysis of the current world order and where it may be headed.
1. Trade Tensions and the Rise of “Maga Economics”
The backdrop to this story is the ongoing shift from multilateralism to unilateralism in global trade. The Trump administration’s tariff-centric approach, particularly towards Asian economies, catalyzed a new era of trade protectionism. The now-expired August 1 deadline for resolving U.S. tariffs showcased this trend. Countries like the Philippines, Indonesia, Vietnam, Malaysia, Thailand, Cambodia, and Laos scrambled to secure favorable tariff terms to avoid being penalized. Yet many were unable to prevent tariff hikes, with some nations facing increases as high as 40%.
This scenario marked the evolution of “Maga Economics,” where the United States abandoned multilateral trade norms in favor of a “divide and conquer” approach. Washington positioned itself as a hegemon, forcing smaller economies into competitive dynamics that benefitted American interests while undermining regional solidarity.
Instead of leveraging collective bargaining power, smaller nations found themselves trapped in zero-sum games. Those unable to offer strategic concessions were penalized with punitive tariffs, pushing them to shift production or absorb losses. This restructuring not only disrupted supply chains but also exposed the vulnerability of export-dependent nations to the whims of great powers.
2. The Return of Economic Nationalism
The Trump-era trade strategy wasn’t just about balancing deficits. It was about reasserting American technological dominance in a world increasingly defined by digital competition. This is evident in the “America’s AI Action Plan”, which emphasized maintaining supremacy in emerging technologies like AI.
Trump’s administration stated:
“As the US global competitors race to exploit these technologies, it is a national imperative for the United States to maintain its unquestioned and unchallenged global technological dominance.”
Such rhetoric signals a return to economic nationalism, where technological sovereignty is equated with national security. The U.S. move to restrict Chinese tech firms, scrutinize semiconductor exports, and control data flows exemplifies this logic. AI, in particular, has emerged as the new “oil” in this digital Cold War.
3. AI: Promise, Peril, and Power
Artificial Intelligence is positioned as the defining technological frontier. However, despite the optimism surrounding AI’s capabilities, it remains far from being an infallible solution.
The article discusses the “garbage in, garbage out” principle—highlighting how biased or flawed data sets inevitably lead to flawed AI outcomes. As AI is trained on past patterns, it may amplify existing systemic biases or miss unprecedented anomalies. While nations race to collect real-time data to feed increasingly sophisticated models, these efforts still face the three-body problem—an analogy from astrophysics used to describe systems so complex that no accurate predictions can be made.
AI promises predictive power, but human behavior, geopolitical decision-making, and climate variables are often non-linear and chaotic. AI can help manage uncertainty, but it cannot eliminate it. The assumption that nations can fully automate strategic decision-making through data science is dangerous.
In a world driven by misinformation, data manipulation, and asymmetric access to technology, over-reliance on AI might result in decisions disconnected from reality. This is where AI ethics, data governance, and international standards become crucial.
4. The Collapse of the Unipolar Order
After the Second World War, the United States established a rules-based liberal order, often called Pax Americana. Under this system, international institutions governed trade, security, and diplomacy. However, this unipolar system is now fraying.
The rise of China, Russia, and other emerging powers is fragmenting global power into a multipolar world. With the Russia-Ukraine war, US-China tech rivalry, and economic blocs like BRICS asserting alternative frameworks, the international system is no longer coherently led by a single hegemon.
Countries like India, Brazil, and Indonesia are increasingly asserting their autonomy, refusing to align blindly with any one bloc. The weakening of the World Trade Organization (WTO) and the proliferation of bilateral trade deals reflect the collapse of consensus-driven global governance.
Andrew Sheng uses the metaphor of Isaac Newton’s planetary motion and the three-body problem to explain this new era:
“Each body’s motion is influenced by the gravitational pull of the other two or more bodies, creating complex interactions that current mathematics cannot accurately explain.”
In this chaotic system, outcomes are unpredictable, alliances are temporary, and the rules of engagement constantly evolve.
5. Competing for Strategic Dominance
In the new global order, economic systems are deeply entangled. The interdependence between China and the U.S., despite their rivalry, illustrates how supply chains, capital flows, and technological ecosystems overlap.
As China emphasizes resilient systems, often characterized by redundancy, localization, and long-term planning, it contrasts sharply with America’s efficiency-driven, just-in-time model. This divergence reflects civilizational thinking—where the East values endurance and the West values agility.
Both systems have strengths and weaknesses. The Chinese model is more resistant to supply shocks but slower to innovate. The American model excels in entrepreneurship and disruption but is vulnerable to systemic breakdowns, as seen during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Sun Tzu, the Chinese philosopher, emphasized the importance of intelligence in warfare:
“All warfare is based on deception. The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting.”
In today’s context, warfare is being waged not only on battlefields but also through trade policy, AI superiority, cyber warfare, and influence operations. Intelligence—especially how it’s gathered, interpreted, and acted upon—becomes a decisive tool.
6. Systemic Challenges and Future Risks
The convergence of several systemic challenges—climate change, pandemics, debt crises, demographic transitions, and technological disruption—adds layers of uncertainty.
AI may help navigate these complexities, but it is not a panacea. The world faces what systems theorists call “wicked problems“—issues that are interdependent, difficult to define, and resistant to simple solutions. For example:
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Climate change reshapes migration, agriculture, and geopolitics.
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Data nationalism fuels new forms of protectionism.
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AI-driven inequality widens global development gaps.
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Misinformation disrupts democratic decision-making.
In such a world, linear policy tools no longer work. The ability to absorb shocks, adapt rapidly, and make informed decisions becomes more valuable than brute strength or raw data power.
7. Multipolarity: Risk or Opportunity?
While the transition to a multipolar world introduces instability, it also presents opportunities. Middle powers can assert themselves more confidently. Regional cooperation (like ASEAN, AU, or Mercosur) can fill governance gaps. Technological leapfrogging enables smaller nations to bypass traditional development stages.
However, this optimism is contingent on leadership, cooperation, and a willingness to reform global institutions. For instance, ensuring AI governance includes the Global South is critical. Likewise, trade rules must account for climate imperatives and social equity.
The risk is that without a new cooperative framework, multipolarity could spiral into chaos, as competing interests trigger conflicts, resource grabs, and technological decoupling.
Conclusion: Walking Without a Roadmap
In closing, Andrew Sheng invokes the Spanish poet Antonio Machado:
“Traveler, there is no road, the road is made by walking.”
This is a powerful metaphor for our time. The future cannot be predicted with certainty—not by AI, not by military might, not by economic models. Instead, it must be built collectively, through trial, error, and resilience.
The current world order is not merely changing—it is being re-written in real time. For countries to navigate this era effectively, they must:
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Embrace strategic agility,
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Invest in technological sovereignty,
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Build resilient and inclusive systems, and
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Reimagine governance for a complex, interconnected planet.
As humanity stands at the cusp of the next chapter, the path forward will not be imposed by one power or solved by one tool. It will be made—step by step—by those who dare to walk it.
