India’s New Climate Targets Are Modest but Significant, A Signal of Commitment Amid Global Turbulence
As the US Retreats from Renewables and Climate Financing Hopes Falter, India Has Reaffirmed Its Clean Energy Pathway—But the Modest Upgrades Reflect Disappointment with International Finance
India on Wednesday revealed its climate targets for 2035, promising to make further progress on cutting the carbon intensity of its economy, expanding the deployment of renewable energy, and creating carbon sinks from forests and trees. India said it would ensure that at least 60 per cent of its electricity installed capacity in 2035 was based on non-fossil fuel sources, up from the 50 per cent target it had set for 2030. It has promised to attain at least a 47 per cent reduction in emissions intensity, or emissions per unit of GDP, on 2005 levels, which is two percentage points more than its current target of 45 per cent for 2030. And, it has promised to create a carbon sink that is at least 3.5 to 4 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent larger than what existed in 2005.
Each of the new targets marks a progression over existing commitments for 2030, a mandatory requirement under the 2015 Paris Agreement. Under this pact, every country is obligated to decide upon, and implement, a set of climate actions that help the global fight against climate change. These are referred to as nationally-determined contributions, or NDCs—emphasising the fact that countries themselves decide the nature and scale of climate actions.
On the face of it, India’s new climate targets seem to be only a slight enhancement over its existing 2030 commitments, which it is on course to achieve well ahead of time. The renewable energy target has already been met and the other two might also be close to being achieved once fresh data on those indicators are available. So why the modesty? The answer lies in the global context—and in India’s disappointment with international climate finance.
The Global Context
India’s reaffirmation of the clean energy pathway it has chosen for itself is extremely important in the current global situation in which countries are being forced to reevaluate their policy options regarding energy, economy and security. The chain of events triggered by Donald Trump’s re-election as President of the US has resulted in a serious erosion in global efforts on climate change. These events have not just slowed down progress on climate, but threaten to reverse the momentum that was building on the replacement of fossil fuels with renewable energy.
The US under Trump has abandoned renewables and is reinvesting money and efforts towards developing and controlling oil and gas resources. Such a reversal by the world’s second largest producer and consumer of energy has had major consequences. Washington’s pursuit of greater control over the world’s oil and gas resources, as reflected in its actions in Venezuela, and the war in West Asia have unnerved several countries, forcing them to make renewed attempts to secure their own oil and gas supply chains.
In this backdrop, India, the world’s third biggest emitter and the third largest consumer of energy, has signalled that it remains committed to the clean energy pathway and enhanced climate action. The signal matters. When the largest economy is retreating from climate action, the third largest stepping forward sends a powerful message.
The Significance of the Targets
UN Climate Change Executive Secretary Simon Stiell acknowledged the significance of India’s new climate targets. “The signals in this announcement from one of the world’s largest and fastest-growing economies could not be more crucial, at a time when the soaring costs of dependence on volatile fossil fuels are becoming painfully clear, undermining national security and sovereignty around the world, driving up prices, and leaving people short of food and fuel. By contrast, renewable energy is not at the mercy of narrow shipping straits or huge naval escorts,” he said, referring to the US-Israeli war on Iran that has led to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The UN official said that India’s new climate plan would deepen its economic advantage.
This is the deeper significance of India’s targets. They are not just about emissions. They are about energy security. They are about insulating the economy from the volatility of global fossil fuel markets. They are about reducing vulnerability to disruptions in narrow shipping straits. In a world where oil prices have swung wildly and supply chains have been disrupted, the case for renewable energy has never been stronger.
The Finance Disappointment
Considering the progress it has already made on its existing commitments, India, perhaps, was in a position to make bigger enhancements to its 2035 targets. For example, a recently released document by the Central Electricity Authority projected that the share of non-fossil fuel sources in the electricity generation capacity could go from the current 52 per cent to 70 per cent by 2035. India, however, has set a target of only 60 per cent in its NDC for 2035. This shows that the country would be willing to do more only whenever it can, and not want to be constrained by international commitments that have to be made in advance.
One of the reasons for India not aiming higher in its 2035 targets, despite seemingly being in a position to do so, could have something to do with its disappointment over the failure of the developed countries to make more money available for climate action. India has been extremely unhappy with the outcome of the climate finance negotiations in Baku in 2024, where the developed countries only agreed to raise about $300 billion a year for the developing countries, and only from 2035. The developing countries had been demanding that at least $1.3 trillion a year be made available for them to finance their climate actions.
India has also been signalling this issue at international forums. At the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP30) in Brazil last year, it managed to force through a decision on the creation of a two-year work programme to discuss all climate finance issues. India has also been arguing that the lack of adequate money would compel countries such as itself to scale down the ambition of their climate actions. In fact, an Indian official had told The Indian Express that India’s 2035 climate targets would very likely “reflect the disappointment of the climate finance outcome at COP29 in Baku.”
The Domestic Imperative
The modesty of the targets also reflects a broader strategic calculation. India has consistently argued that its climate actions are driven by domestic imperatives, not international pressure. It has met its 2030 renewable energy target well ahead of schedule not because it was obligated to do so, but because it made economic sense. Solar and wind power are now cheaper than coal-fired electricity. Electric vehicles are reducing oil imports. Energy efficiency is lowering costs for industry.
By setting modest targets that it knows it can exceed, India is signalling that it will not be rushed. It will not allow international pressure to dictate the pace of its transition. It will do what is in its own interest, at its own speed. This is not obstructionism; it is strategic autonomy applied to climate policy.
The Adaptation Emphasis
India’s 2035 NDC, which is yet to be published and submitted to UN Climate Change, is expected to have a strong emphasis on adaptation actions. This is significant. Mitigation—reducing emissions—has dominated international climate discourse. But for a country like India, which is already experiencing the impacts of climate change, adaptation is equally important.
Floods, droughts, heatwaves, and cyclones are already taking a toll. The costs of adaptation—building resilient infrastructure, developing drought-resistant crops, protecting coastlines—are substantial. By emphasising adaptation in its NDC, India is making clear that its climate priorities are shaped by its own vulnerabilities, not just by global emissions targets.
The Path Forward
Finding low-cost, long-term finance—both from domestic as well as international sources—for green investments has been identified as one of the core objectives in India’s 2035 climate plan. This is where the disconnect between ambition and finance is most acute. India has the technical capacity and the industrial base to scale up renewables rapidly. What it lacks is access to affordable capital.
The domestic financial system is not yet structured to provide the long-term, low-cost financing that green infrastructure requires. International climate finance, promised for years, has been slow to materialise. The $300 billion a year that developed countries have committed to raise by 2035 is a fraction of what is needed.
With the relatively modest upgrade in targets, India also seems to be reiterating its position that while it remains fully committed to climate action, it would not allow international pressure to dictate the pace of those actions. This is a defensible position. India’s per capita emissions are a fraction of those of the developed world. Its cumulative historical emissions are negligible. If the developed countries are not willing to pay for the transition, why should India sacrifice its development?
Conclusion: A Signal Worth Heeding
India’s new climate targets are modest, but they are significant. They signal that the world’s third-largest emitter remains committed to the clean energy pathway, even as the world’s largest emitter retreats. They signal that India will continue to expand renewables, reduce emissions intensity, and create carbon sinks. They also signal that India will not be rushed, and that it expects the developed world to pay its fair share.
The targets are not a ceiling; they are a floor. India has consistently over-performed on its climate commitments. There is every reason to believe it will do so again. The 60 per cent renewable energy target will likely be exceeded. The 47 per cent emissions intensity reduction will likely be surpassed. The carbon sink target will likely be achieved ahead of schedule.
But the signal matters. In a world where climate action is stalling, India is moving forward. In a world where the US is retreating, India is advancing. In a world where fossil fuel dependence is creating insecurity, India is building resilience. That is a signal worth heeding.
Q&A: Unpacking India’s New Climate Targets
Q1: What are India’s new climate targets for 2035?
A: India’s new targets include: 60% of electricity installed capacity from non-fossil fuel sources (up from 50% by 2030); a 47% reduction in emissions intensity from 2005 levels (up from 45% by 2030); and creating an additional carbon sink of 3.5 to 4 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent over 2005 levels (up from 2.5 to 3 billion tonnes). Each target marks a modest progression over existing 2030 commitments.
Q2: Why are the targets considered “modest” given India’s progress?
A: India has already met its 2030 renewable energy target, with non-fossil sources currently at 52% of installed capacity. The Central Electricity Authority projects this could reach 70% by 2035, yet India set a target of only 60%. Similarly, emissions intensity reduction targets are only slightly increased. The modesty reflects both India’s ability to do more and its strategic choice not to commit to higher targets without adequate international climate finance.
Q3: How does the global context influence India’s climate stance?
A: The US under Trump has abandoned renewables and is reinvesting in oil and gas, threatening to reverse global momentum on climate action. Washington’s pursuit of greater control over oil and gas resources, reflected in actions in Venezuela and the West Asia war, has unnerved countries and forced them to secure their own supply chains. In this backdrop, India’s reaffirmation of its clean energy pathway sends an important signal of continued commitment.
Q4: What role does climate finance play in India’s target-setting?
A: India has been extremely disappointed with the outcome of climate finance negotiations, where developed countries agreed to raise only $300 billion a year (far less than the $1.3 trillion demanded) and only from 2035. An Indian official indicated that the 2035 targets would “reflect the disappointment” of this outcome. India is emphasising that lack of adequate money would compel countries to scale down climate actions, and has made finding low-cost, long-term finance a core objective.
Q5: What is the significance of India’s new climate targets beyond the numbers?
A: The targets signal that India remains committed to clean energy even as the US retreats. They emphasise that India’s climate actions are driven by domestic imperatives—energy security, economic competitiveness—not international pressure. The targets are set as a floor, not a ceiling; India has consistently over-performed on previous commitments. The emphasis on adaptation in the forthcoming NDC highlights that India’s climate priorities are shaped by its own vulnerabilities to floods, droughts, and other climate impacts. UN Climate Change Executive Secretary Simon Stiell noted that renewable energy is “not at the mercy of narrow shipping straits or huge naval escorts”—a reference to the current war in West Asia and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, underscoring the energy security dimension of India’s clean energy pathway.
