India, Brazil and a New South-South Compact, Forging Strategic Partnership in a Turbulent World
When Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva first announced plans to travel to India last year amid trade tensions with the US, he had emphasised the need to defend multilateralism and forge greater economic integration between the two countries. That vision has now taken concrete shape.
At the talks between Lula and Prime Minister Narendra Modi in New Delhi on Saturday, the two sides agreed to raise the bilateral trade target to $30 billion by 2030, reflecting a keenness to build on the recent momentum in commercial ties, including a 25% rise in trade in 2025 over the previous year, against the backdrop of uncertainty injected in trade by the US’s tariff policies.
This is not just another trade agreement. It is a strategic statement by two major democracies of the Global South that they intend to deepen their partnership in a world where the old certainties are crumbling.
The Context of Uncertainty
Both India and Brazil were hit with some of the highest US tariffs, and this spurred their efforts at forums such as Brics and the G20 to build a more equitable new order. The Trump administration’s tariff policies have been indiscriminate, targeting allies and rivals alike. For countries like India and Brazil, this has been a wake-up call.
The message is clear: reliance on any single market or partner is risky. Diversification is not just good economics; it is strategic necessity. The India-Brazil partnership is part of a broader effort to build alternatives, to create options, to reduce vulnerability.
This also signals India’s interest in new markets in Latin America, which was not a focus area for New Delhi in recent decades. For too long, India’s economic engagement with Latin America has been modest relative to its potential. That is changing.
Rare Earths: A Strategic Bet
The agreements concluded by the two sides on rare earths and mining—vital to India’s energy transition and infrastructure goals—is a significant bet for India to overcome China’s grip on the supply and processing of rare earths and critical minerals and its vulnerability to the weaponisation of supply chains by Beijing.
Rare earths are not just another commodity. They are essential for everything from smartphones to electric vehicles to defence systems. China currently dominates both mining and processing, giving it enormous leverage. For India, with its ambitious plans for renewable energy and high-tech manufacturing, securing alternative sources is not optional; it is existential.
Brazil is estimated to hold one of the largest reserves of rare earths after China and could emerge as a key source of these commodities, especially if the two sides can speedily attract investments to the sector. This is not just about trade; it is about strategic autonomy. It is about ensuring that India’s green transition is not hostage to Chinese supply chains.
What Brazil Gains
Brazil too stands to gain from India’s experience in defence manufacturing, space and digitalisation. India has built credible capabilities in these areas over decades, often under conditions of technology denial and sanctions. These capabilities are now available for partnership.
In defence, India’s experience in manufacturing under the Make in India initiative could be relevant for Brazil’s own defence industrial base. In space, India’s low-cost satellite launches and space applications offer opportunities for collaboration. In digitalisation, India’s success with UPI and other digital public infrastructure provides a model that Brazil could adapt.
This is a partnership of equals, where each brings complementary strengths to the table.
South-South Cooperation
From a symbolic standpoint, this is a deepening of South-South cooperation and an affirmation of collaboration in strategic sectors by two countries with a significant stake in giving voice to the issues of the Global South.
The term “South-South cooperation” has been around for decades, but it has often been more rhetoric than reality. The India-Brazil partnership suggests that it can be substantive—based on concrete projects, measurable outcomes, and mutual benefit.
Both countries have been at the forefront of efforts to reform global governance institutions. They have worked together in the G20, in Brics, in the IBSA Dialogue Forum. This partnership adds economic and strategic heft to those diplomatic efforts.
The $30 Billion Target
The agreement to raise bilateral trade to $30 billion by 2030 is ambitious but achievable. Trade has already grown 25% in 2025 over the previous year, showing the momentum is real. With focused effort, the target can be met.
But trade is only part of the story. The real significance lies in the sectors chosen for cooperation: rare earths, defence, space, digitalisation. These are not traditional areas of South-South trade; they are at the cutting edge of the modern economy. By collaborating here, India and Brazil are positioning themselves for the future, not just trading in the present.
Conclusion: A Model for the Global South
The India-Brazil partnership offers a model for how countries of the Global South can cooperate in strategic sectors. It demonstrates that South-South cooperation need not be limited to rhetoric or to low-value trade. It can be about high technology, about critical minerals, about defence, about space.
It also shows that such cooperation is not a rejection of the North. India and Brazil continue to engage with the US, Europe, and others. But they are also building alternatives, creating options, reducing vulnerability. In a world of uncertainty, that is the wisest strategy.
The $30 billion target by 2030 is a milestone, not a destination. The real goal is a partnership that helps both countries achieve their developmental aspirations, secure their strategic interests, and shape a more equitable global order. That is a goal worth pursuing.
Q&A: Unpacking the India-Brazil Partnership
Q1: Why is the India-Brazil partnership significant in the current global context?
Both countries were hit with some of the highest US tariffs, highlighting the risks of over-reliance on any single market. The partnership represents a strategic effort to diversify, create options, and reduce vulnerability. It signals India’s renewed interest in Latin America and both countries’ commitment to building a more equitable global order through forums like Brics and G20.
Q2: What is the bilateral trade target and how realistic is it?
The two sides agreed to raise bilateral trade to $30 billion by 2030. This is ambitious but achievable, especially given that trade grew 25% in 2025 over the previous year. The momentum is real, and with focused effort on the identified strategic sectors, the target can be met.
Q3: Why are rare earths a critical focus of the partnership?
Rare earths are essential for energy transition technologies (electric vehicles, renewables) and high-tech manufacturing. China currently dominates both mining and processing, creating strategic vulnerability for importing countries. Brazil has one of the largest rare earth reserves after China and could emerge as a key alternative source, helping India overcome dependence on Chinese supply chains.
Q4: What does Brazil gain from this partnership?
Brazil gains access to India’s experience in defence manufacturing (including Make in India models), space technology (low-cost launches and applications), and digitalisation (UPI and digital public infrastructure). This is a partnership of equals with complementary strengths—Brazil offers rare earths and agricultural expertise while India offers technology and manufacturing capabilities.
Q5: What does this partnership mean for South-South cooperation?
It demonstrates that South-South cooperation can be substantive, strategic, and focused on high-technology sectors—not just rhetoric or low-value trade. It affirms collaboration in strategic areas by two countries with significant stake in giving voice to Global South issues. The partnership adds economic and strategic heft to diplomatic efforts in G20, Brics, and other forums.
