Himalayan Hopes, Nepal’s RSP Victory and the Weight of Gen Z’s Expectations
Nepal has become the third South Asian country, after Sri Lanka and Bangladesh, where elections have been held in the wake of popular protests that swept aside established political leaders. The pattern is striking and undeniable. A young, disaffected generation, armed with smartphones and social media, has risen up against a political class they view as corrupt, out-of-touch, and responsible for economic stagnation. In Bangladesh, the protests led to a fundamental reshaping of the political order. In Sri Lanka, they propelled Anura Kumara Dissanayake, a political outlier with decades of experience, to the presidency. Now, in Nepal, the wave has carried to power the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) and its charismatic, 35-year-old leader, Balendra Shah, popularly known as “Balen.” But while Dissanayake brought a long history of political engagement to the task of rebuilding his country, Balen is a political novice, a former rapper who eschewed a musical career to win the Kathmandu mayoral election as an independent in 2022. His victory, and that of his four-year-old party, is a testament to the depth of public anger, but it also raises a daunting question: can a technocratic disruptor, however popular, meet the sky-high expectations of the generation that propelled him to power?
The scale of the RSP’s victory is staggering. The party is on course to sweep both sections of the 275-member Lower House—the 165 seats directly elected through the first-past-the-post system and the 110 elected via proportional representation. Its appeal extended far beyond the Kathmandu Valley, where it swept all seats, decimating political stalwarts who had dominated Nepali politics for decades. Among the vanquished are Gagan Thapa, the Nepali Congress’s prime ministerial candidate, and numerous heavyweights from the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist Leninist) or CPN (UML). The most symbolic and stunning victory, however, was Balen’s own. He defeated four-time former Prime Minister K.P. Sharma Oli, the grand old man of the CPN (UML), in his own stronghold, by a margin of over 50,000 votes. It was a moment of generational succession written in the starkest terms: the 74-year-old veteran, a symbol of the old politics, humbled by a 35-year-old rapper who had never held national office. The only prominent leader to survive the wave was Pushpa Dahal “Prachanda” of the Maoist Centre, whose coalition government had included RSP members, perhaps insulating him from the full force of the anti-incumbency vote.
This decisive victory promises something that has been desperately lacking in Nepal since the fall of the monarchy in 2008: political stability. The country has lurched through 14 governments in that period, a carousel of shifting coalitions and short-lived administrations that has made long-term planning impossible and eroded confidence in the state’s ability to deliver. The old system, dominated by a troika of entrenched politicians and their parties, seemed incapable of breaking the cycle. The RSP’s majority offers the prospect of a single, strong government with a clear mandate, unburdened by the need to constantly negotiate with fractious coalition partners. This alone is a significant achievement and a source of hope.
But with this hope comes an immense burden of expectation. The Gen Z protesters who precipitated the political crisis in September 2025 were not just demanding a change of faces; they were demanding a change in outcomes. Their frustrations were rooted in harsh realities: unemployment running at a staggering 10%, rampant corruption among the political elite, and a political culture that seemed to reward “nepo babies”—the children and relatives of powerful politicians—rather than merit. Chronic political instability has decimated Nepal’s key tourism and services sectors, even as droves of educated young people have been forced to head overseas to the Gulf, Malaysia, and beyond in search of work. The result is a distorted economy where remittances from abroad, rather than productive domestic activity, have become the major driver of consumption. This is not a recipe for sustainable development; it is a recipe for dependency.
The RSP’s election manifesto reflects an awareness of these challenges and an ambition to match them. It promises to create 1.2 million jobs in five years, a target that would dramatically alter the employment landscape. It vows to reduce the tide of foreign migration, to double per capita income from $1,447 to $3,000 (a feat that would require more than doubling the country’s GDP), and to provide universal healthcare and insurance. These are not incremental goals; they are transformative aspirations. The manifesto, however, is light on the specifics of how these miracles will be achieved. It outlines the destination, but the roadmap remains unclear.
This is where Balen’s track record as mayor of Kathmandu becomes relevant. His tenure was marked by a decisive, technocratic, and sometimes abrasive style of governance. He was seen as a disruptor, unafraid to take on vested interests, to clear encroachments, to improve waste management, and to use data and technology to solve urban problems. But he was also criticized for an “anti-poor” approach, for prioritizing a vision of a modern, gleaming Kathmandu over the needs of its most vulnerable residents. His governance was a mix of efficiency and insensitivity, of progress and exclusion. Whether this style can be scaled up from a city to a nation, and whether it can address the deep-seated structural problems of the national economy, remains to be seen.
The RSP’s victory also has significant implications for the geostrategic landscape of the Himalayan nation, which is permanently wedged between its two giant neighbours, India and China. Balen is the first person from the Madhesi community, which inhabits the Terai region bordering India, to hold the country’s highest office. This could have a significant impact on the dynamics of cross-border relations. More importantly, Balen has expressed reservations about China’s growing influence in Nepal, a stance that marks a potential shift from previous administrations that have sometimes been perceived as tilting towards Beijing. This has caused growing discomfort between New Delhi and Kathmandu in recent years, as Chinese investments and infrastructure projects have expanded. A leader who is more skeptical of China’s role could be a welcome development for India.
In this context, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s warm and immediate congratulatory message to Balen takes on added significance. It signals a willingness to engage with the new leadership and to reset a relationship that has had its ups and downs. It echoes the approach India has taken with the new governments in Sri Lanka and Bangladesh, where New Delhi has moved quickly to build bridges with the new, post-protest leadership. The message is clear: India is ready to work with the new generation of South Asian leaders, offering partnership and support as they navigate the immense challenges of governing.
For Nepal, the road ahead is steep and uncertain. The RSP has won a historic mandate, but it now faces the daunting task of translating that mandate into tangible improvements in the lives of ordinary Nepalis. The Gen Z protesters who brought them to power will be watching closely, and they are not known for their patience. If the new government fails to deliver jobs, fails to curb corruption, fails to create a sense of opportunity and hope, the same digital tools that organized the protests could just as easily be turned against the new rulers. The Himalayan hopes are high. The challenge now is to ensure they do not come crashing down.
Questions and Answers
Q1: What is the common pattern observed in recent elections across South Asia, including Nepal, Sri Lanka, and Bangladesh?
A1: The common pattern is that elections have been held following popular protests, often led by youth, that ousted established political leaders. Voters have rejected the old guard and instead thrown their support behind “political outliers” or new parties, reflecting a deep desire for change and a break from the past.
Q2: Who is Balendra Shah (Balen), and what made his victory particularly symbolic?
A2: Balendra Shah is a 35-year-old former rapper who won the Kathmandu mayoral election in 2022. In the 2026 parliamentary election, he defeated four-time former Prime Minister K.P. Sharma Oli in his own stronghold by over 50,000 votes. This victory was symbolic of a generational shift, with a young political novice humbling a veteran of the old political order.
Q3: What are the key economic challenges and promises that define the high expectations for the RSP government?
A3: The key challenges are high unemployment (10%), rampant corruption, and a “nepo baby” culture. The RSP’s manifesto promises to address these by creating 1.2 million jobs in five years, reducing foreign migration, doubling per capita income to $3,000, and providing universal healthcare. The question is whether these ambitious goals can be achieved.
Q4: How might Balen’s victory alter Nepal’s geostrategic position between India and China?
A4: Balen is the first Madhesi leader, which could affect ties with India. More importantly, he has expressed reservations about China’s growing influence in Nepal, a stance that marks a potential shift from previous administrations. This could create a new dynamic more favourable to India, which has been concerned about Beijing’s expanding footprint.
Q5: What was the significance of Prime Minister Modi’s congratulatory message to Balen?
A5: Modi’s warm and immediate message signals India’s willingness to engage with the new leadership and reset the bilateral relationship. It reflects a broader Indian strategy of building bridges with the new, post-protest governments emerging across South Asia (in Sri Lanka and Bangladesh as well), offering partnership and support to the new generation of leaders.
