Could India Have Handled President Trump Better?
Why in News
The recent rupture in US-India ties has sparked debates on whether India could have managed its relationship with former US President Donald Trump differently. Analysts argue that the Modi government, despite its resilience in handling multiple crises—from demonetization to the Covid-19 pandemic—may have miscalculated in managing Trump’s unpredictable diplomacy. This issue has resurfaced in policy discussions, highlighting the need for India to re-evaluate its foreign policy strategies.
Introduction
India’s foreign policy has historically been driven by a careful balance of non-alignment, strategic partnerships, and pursuit of economic growth. Under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, India entered an era of aggressive global engagement, seeking deeper ties with the US while managing adversarial relationships with China and Pakistan. However, the Trump era presented a unique challenge: a US President who valued personal loyalty, unpredictability, and transactional diplomacy.
While Modi’s government managed to maintain domestic political dominance, the handling of the Trump administration exposed structural weaknesses in India’s foreign policy apparatus. Today, as the geopolitical order continues to shift, it is worth asking: Could India have handled President Trump better?
Key Issues and Background
1. India’s Political Resilience
The Modi government demonstrated political resilience through multiple domestic and global crises:
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Successfully converting demonetization, though economically disruptive, into a political narrative of reform.
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Surviving the Covid-19 pandemic’s political fallout despite devastating health and economic impacts.
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Withdrawing controversial land acquisition and farm laws without suffering lasting political damage.
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Retaining broad political dominance through a multi-class, multi-caste electoral base.
This resilience, however, did not fully extend to foreign policy outcomes with the Trump administration.
2. Trump’s Diplomatic Style
Trump’s foreign policy was built on unpredictability, nationalism, and transactionalism. He preferred personal relationships with world leaders, often sidelining institutional frameworks. For India, this meant that traditional diplomatic strategies—based on careful negotiations, bureaucratic processes, and long-term vision—were often ineffective.
3. The Ceasefire Claim and Trade Missteps
When Trump claimed credit for a ceasefire in South Asia in 2019, India found itself blindsided. Despite India’s military, economic, and strategic weight, it struggled to counter Trump’s narrative. India could not prevent him from framing regional developments through his own lens, nor did it manage to effectively shape the conversation in Washington.
On trade, Trump’s “America First” policy hurt India’s economic interests. He withdrew India from the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP), tightened visa rules affecting Indian IT professionals, and escalated trade disputes. Despite Modi’s global image, India failed to strike a balance between protecting its economic priorities and sustaining political goodwill with the US.
4. Immigration and People-to-People Relations
The Trump years saw increased visa restrictions, particularly on H-1B holders, directly impacting the Indian diaspora and tech workers. Anti-immigrant rhetoric further damaged India’s image among US policymakers and the broader American public. Student visa challenges, anti-India rhetoric in right-wing spaces, and a decline in people-to-people warmth strained what has traditionally been one of the strongest pillars of Indo-US relations.
Specific Impacts or Effects
1. Strategic Costs
India’s inability to manage Trump’s transactional style weakened its standing in Washington. While India continued to engage in Quad discussions and security cooperation, it paid a diplomatic price in terms of trade concessions and stalled economic agreements.
2. Economic Setbacks
The end of preferential trade terms under GSP meant Indian exports lost competitiveness in the US market. Indian companies also suffered from Trump’s restrictive visa policies, hampering talent mobility.
3. Diplomatic Fallout
Trump’s unpredictability created uncertainty in Indo-US ties. The unpredictability made it difficult for India to engage in long-term planning, forcing policymakers into reactive rather than proactive modes of diplomacy.
4. Domestic Political Impact
While Modi retained strong domestic support, critics argued that the government overinvested in personal optics (such as the “Howdy Modi” rally in Houston) while underperforming in substance. Symbolic events failed to translate into tangible diplomatic gains.
Challenges and the Way Forward
1. Learning to Manage Unpredictable Leaders
The Trump era underscores the need for India to adapt its diplomacy when engaging with leaders who prioritize personal loyalty over institutional processes. India must balance personal diplomacy with structural safeguards.
2. Building Bipartisan Ties in the US
India cannot afford to tie its fortunes to one administration. Bipartisan relationships in Washington must be strengthened to ensure continuity, irrespective of leadership changes.
3. Prioritizing Economic Negotiations
India must recognize that trade, immigration, and investment are as critical as defense and security. Proactive engagement on these fronts could have mitigated the damage during the Trump years.
4. Leveraging Third-Party Mediation and Global Partnerships
India has historically been adept at third-party mediation. Reviving this strength in multilateral forums could allow India to shape narratives rather than react to them.
5. Resetting Policy Goals
As analysts note, the current government may require a “Kamraj-plan style reset” in foreign policy—one that prioritizes broad-based strategic, economic, and diplomatic recalibration.
Conclusion
The Trump years were a litmus test for India’s foreign policy agility. While India retained its domestic political dominance, it failed to fully capitalize on the US partnership during a period when Washington was redefining its global role. The lessons are clear: diplomacy must go beyond personal optics, economic issues must be addressed with urgency, and long-term bipartisan engagement in Washington must be prioritized.
As India prepares for future global uncertainties, the central question remains: Can India transform its foreign policy to ensure resilience in the face of unpredictable partners?
5 Questions and Answers
Q1. Why is the Trump era significant for India’s foreign policy analysis?
The Trump era highlighted India’s challenges in dealing with unpredictable and transactional diplomacy. It showed the limitations of relying on personal rapport and underlined the importance of institutional, bipartisan, and multi-sectoral engagement with the US.
Q2. What were the main areas of strain between India and the US under Trump?
Key issues included trade disputes, visa restrictions affecting Indian IT professionals, withdrawal of GSP benefits, and lack of coordination on regional security issues such as Afghanistan.
Q3. How did the Trump administration affect the Indian diaspora in the US?
Indian IT workers and students were directly impacted by restrictive visa policies, while rising anti-immigrant rhetoric created social and cultural challenges for the Indian-American community.
Q4. What lessons can India draw from its handling of Trump?
India must strengthen bipartisan ties in Washington, prioritize trade and economic negotiations, reduce dependence on symbolic optics, and enhance institutional diplomacy that can withstand unpredictable leadership styles.
Q5. What should India’s foreign policy reset look like in the coming years?
India’s reset should include a balance between security and economic diplomacy, building bipartisan goodwill in Washington, leveraging global partnerships, and ensuring that domestic political priorities do not overshadow long-term strategic interests.
