Renewable Energy Meets Global Demand for the First Time, But Geopolitical Shocks Expose India’s Persistent Fossil Fuel Dependency

Renewable Energy Meets Global Demand for the First Time, But Geopolitical Shocks Expose India’s Persistent Fossil Fuel Dependency

In 2025, global electricity generation increased by roughly 850 terawatt-hours (TWh), according to data from the Ember Energy Institute. This increase was supplied almost entirely by solar and wind energy, contributing 636 TWh and 204 TWh respectively. Other renewables added another 23 TWh. Coal generation and oil meanwhile fell by 67 TWh and 12 TWh respectively. This is the first year in which expanded electricity demand did not require an increase in fossil fuels.

For two decades, even as renewable electricity capacity grew at double-digit rates, fossil fuel generation remained relevant and kept climbing because absolute electricity demand was rising faster than what renewables could cover. The rising consumption relied on coal and gas-fuelled energy. Even as renewable energy gained market share, it could not displace fossil fuels in absolute terms. That pattern reversed in 2025.

This article examines the global energy transition milestone, the role of China and India in driving fossil fuel decline, the impact of the West Asian conflict on India’s energy imports (crude oil, LNG, LPG), the vulnerability exposed by the Strait of Hormuz closure, and the paradox of rapid renewable growth coexisting with deepening import dependence.

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Part I: The Global Milestone – Renewables Meet New Demand

The data from Ember Energy Institute tells a remarkable story. For the first time, the world’s increased electricity consumption was met entirely by clean energy.

Over the past decade, the cost of solar and wind energy has dropped steeply, and battery storage and grid integration capacities have improved drastically. In 2025, coal’s share of global electricity production fell by just over 1% and solar energy increased by nearly 2%. The dependence on oil also went down.

The analysis makes a crucial observation: “Coal generation fell in absolute terms for the first time last year, as renewables outpaced demand growth. Natural gas also saw a modest 45 TWh increase, entirely offset by renewable gas.”

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Part II: China Leads the Transition

Major superpowers are embracing the change. China, for instance, saw its fossil fuel generation fall for the first time since 2015. The country saw a strong 5% growth in electricity demand and a 15% growth in clean energy generation, met largely by solar and wind energy.

The analysis notes: *”Solar energy alone met two-thirds of the increase in the country’s electricity demand in 2025, according to a report by Ember Energy.”*

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Part III: India’s Progress – Fossil Fuel Demand Falls

Fossil fuel demand fell in India as well. Together, the fall in demand in India and China has pushed global fossil fuel generation to stagnation, according to the report.

This is a positive development. India’s renewable capacity has grown by over 210% in the past decade. In FY 2024-25, renewable energy accounted for 89% of India’s new capacity additions. However, as the analysis will show, this has not translated into reduced import dependence.

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Part IV: The Geopolitical Shock – Strait of Hormuz Closure

While the global transition story is positive, the analysis then pivots to a stark reality for India. In March 2026, the Strait of Hormuz closed due to the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran. This narrow waterway handles a significant share of global oil and gas shipments.

India imports 89% of its crude oil, primarily from Qatar, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia — all West Asian suppliers whose shipments pass through the Strait of Hormuz. The closure created an immediate supply shock, even before considering long-term price effects.

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Part V: The Paradox – Renewable Growth Without Reduced Import Dependence

The analysis identifies a central paradox. Despite rapid renewable capacity growth, India’s absolute energy dependence on imports has deepened.

The analysis explains the time lag problem: “Renewable capacity takes years to translate into reliable, usable power and geopolitical shocks affect energy supply in the instant short-term. When the Strait of Hormuz closed in early March, India could not wait for wind farms to reach completion or battery capacity to scale.”

This is the critical distinction. Renewable capacity is a long-term solution to energy transition. But geopolitical shocks operate on a timescale of days and weeks. India’s energy security strategy must address both timelines simultaneously.

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Part VI: Natural Gas and LPG – Surging Imports Amid Disruption

The analysis provides detailed data on India’s natural gas and LPG situation during the crisis.

Natural Gas:

LPG:

The analysis notes that crude oil, LNG, and LPG are all imported heavily from West Asian suppliers. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupted all three simultaneously, creating a multi-dimensional energy crisis.

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Part VII: India’s Crisis Response – A Multi-Pronged Approach

Faced with the Strait of Hormuz closure, India responded rapidly across multiple fronts.

The analysis also notes the consumer impact: “LPG prices rose by $60 per cylinder after the conflict began.” For millions of households that received LPG connections under Ujjwala, this price increase represents a significant financial burden.

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Part VIII: The Global Context – Coal’s Declining Share

The analysis includes global context on coal’s declining share in electricity production:

While the decline appears modest (3 percentage points over nine years), the analysis notes that coal generation fell in absolute terms for the first time in 2025. This is significant because it breaks the pattern of coal growing in absolute terms even as its share declined — a phenomenon that occurs when total electricity demand grows faster than renewables can displace fossil fuels.

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Part IX: The Perilous Present and Cleaner Future

The analysis ends with a balanced assessment of India’s position.

The good news:

• India’s renewable capacity is growing at the fastest rate globally

• Renewable accounted for 89% of new capacity additions in FY 2024-25

• India’s fossil fuel generation fell by 3.3% in 2025

• Long-term trajectory is toward cleaner energy

The bad news:

• Import dependence on a conflict zone exists alongside clean energy progress

• 89% crude oil import dependence remains a strategic vulnerability

• The Strait of Hormuz closure demonstrated how quickly geopolitical shocks can disrupt supply

• Renewable capacity cannot be scaled instantly to respond to crises

The analysis concludes: “The global energy transition advanced significantly in 2025. India’s renewable capacity is growing at the fastest rate globally. However, import dependence on a conflict zone exists alongside clean energy progress in India.”

This is not a contradiction; it is a transition reality. The shift to renewable energy takes decades. In the interim, India remains vulnerable to the geopolitics of fossil fuels — a vulnerability that no amount of renewable capacity can immediately erase.

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Conclusion: Two Timelines, One Energy Strategy

The year 2025 marked a historic milestone. For the first time, the world’s increased electricity demand was met entirely by clean energy. Solar and wind drove this transformation, with China leading the way and India contributing positively through reduced fossil fuel generation and rapid renewable expansion.

But the Strait of Hormuz closure in March 2026 was a brutal reminder that energy transition is not linear and not complete. India imports 89% of its crude oil, 47% of its natural gas, and 26% of its coal. When a narrow waterway in West Asia closes, Indian households pay $60 more per LPG cylinder, Indian industries face crude oil shortages, and the government scrambles to find alternative suppliers.

The solution is not to abandon renewables. The solution is to accelerate them, while simultaneously diversifying fossil fuel import sources, building strategic petroleum reserves, and investing in domestic exploration. India must run on two tracks: the long-term track of renewable transition, and the short-term track of energy security in a volatile world.

The global milestone of 2025 is cause for optimism. But the crisis of 2026 is a cause for vigilance. India’s energy future will be cleaner. But getting there requires navigating a perilous present.

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5 Questions & Answers (Q&A) for Examinations and Debates

Q1. What made 2025 a historic year for global electricity generation, according to the Ember Energy Institute data?

A1. According to Ember Energy Institute data, 2025 was the first year in which expanded electricity demand did not require an increase in fossil fuels. Global electricity generation increased by roughly 850 TWh, and this increase was supplied almost entirely by solar (636 TWh) and wind (204 TWh). Other renewables added 23 TWh. Meanwhile, coal generation fell by 67 TWh and oil generation fell by 12 TWh. This reversed a two-decade pattern where absolute electricity demand rose faster than renewables could cover, forcing continued reliance on coal and gas. In 2015, coal’s share of global electricity was 36%; by 2024, it had fallen to 33%, but 2025 marked the first absolute decline in coal generation.

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Q2. How did China perform in the energy transition in 2025, and what role did it play in global fossil fuel stagnation?

A2. China saw its fossil fuel generation fall for the first time since 2015. The country experienced 5% growth in electricity demand and 15% growth in clean energy generation. Solar energy grew by 40% compared to 2024, and wind energy increased by 14%. Solar energy alone met two-thirds of the increase in China’s electricity demand in 2025. Together with India (where fossil fuel generation fell by 3.3%), China’s performance pushed global fossil fuel generation to stagnation. This is significant because China has been the world’s largest coal consumer; its transition away from fossil fuels has outsized global implications.

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Q3. What impact did the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have on India’s crude oil imports and prices in March 2026?

A3. The Strait of Hormuz closed on March 1, 2026, due to the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran. This narrow waterway handles a significant share of global oil and gas shipments. India imports 89% of its crude oil, primarily from Qatar, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia — all West Asian suppliers. The impact was immediate and severe:

The price increase of 56% year-over-year reflects both the supply disruption and the premium for alternative, longer shipping routes.

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Q4. What is the paradox at the heart of India’s energy situation, according to the analysis?

A4. The paradox is that despite rapid renewable capacity growth, India’s absolute energy dependence on fossil fuel imports has deepened. Key indicators:

The analysis explains that renewable capacity takes years to translate into reliable power, while geopolitical shocks affect supply instantly. When the Strait of Hormuz closed, India could not wait for wind farms or battery scaling. It had to respond by maximising existing coal and gas infrastructure and importing from alternative suppliers. Thus, clean energy progress and fossil fuel import dependence coexist in India.

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Q5. How did India respond to the energy crisis caused by the Strait of Hormuz closure, and what were the immediate consequences for consumers?

A5. India implemented a multi-pronged response to the crisis:

However, despite these measures, the crisis had direct consumer consequences. LPG prices rose by $60 per cylinder after the conflict began. For the millions of households that received LPG connections under the Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana (which expanded coverage from 62% of households in 2016 to nearly 100% by 2025), this price increase represents a significant financial burden. The crisis also exposed that natural gas consumption rose by 7% despite disruptions, filled by a 20.5% jump in LNG imports — demonstrating the inelasticity of India’s fossil fuel demand in the short term.