Manipur’s Long Road to Peace, AI’s Redefinition of Indian IT, and the Art of Reinvention
The latest round of violence has erupted in Manipur at a time when the border state had barely started its journey on the path of peace after the unrest and mayhem it had witnessed since May 3, 2023. It is also when new Chief Minister Yumnam Khemchand Singh, who comes from the Meitei community, is making all attempts and has walked the extra mile to build bridges between the two communities. It is true that the reasons the groups on either side cite have their roots in the history and geography of the region, and hence are unlikely to go away very soon. But that cannot be a reason for the governments at the Centre and in the state not to try and bring peace. Meanwhile, a different kind of transformation is underway in India’s information technology sector. Over the last couple of years, Artificial Intelligence has been touted as the greatest disruptor of jobs, the economy and the way people operate. Recent revenue data, however, paints a somewhat reassuring macro picture. India’s frontline IT services firms have closed FY26 with stable profits, signalling that the worst of macroeconomic headwinds may be receding. The AI-native deals are already translating into a multi-billion-dollar market. With projections of a $300-400 billion AI-led opportunity by 2030, the Indian IT sector is not shrinking; it is just being redefined. India, in general, and the IT sector in particular, have weathered many crises before. But this moment is different. It is not about surviving disruption—it is about reinventing ourselves.
The Roots of Manipur’s Unrest: History, Geography, and Armed Groups
The reasons the groups on either side cite have their roots in the history and geography of the region. Manipur is a border state, sharing a sensitive frontier with Myanmar. It is also a state with a complex ethnic mosaic: the valley-dwelling Meitei community (predominantly Hindu) and the hill-dwelling Kuki, Naga, and other tribal communities (predominantly Christian). The British colonial administration administered the hills and the valley separately, creating administrative distinctions that hardened into ethnic identities. After independence, the merger of Manipur into the Indian Union was contested. The demand for a separate state, for greater autonomy, for the protection of indigenous rights—these are not new. They have simmered for decades.
The current cycle of violence began in May 2023, triggered by a court order that directed the state government to consider extending Scheduled Tribe (ST) status to the Meitei community. The hill tribes feared that this would dilute their existing ST benefits and alter the demographic balance. Protests escalated into armed clashes. Over 200 people have been killed. Thousands have been displaced. Villages have been burnt. The state has been divided into ethnic enclaves.
A careful look at the pattern of violence reveals a common thread: the presence of armed groups for the protection of communities and villages. These groups roam around freely, offering a sense of security to the inhabitants who mostly belong to a particular community. Allegations of encroachment on each other’s property or border skirmishes can set fire to the charged emotions, resulting in massive disruption of tranquillity, and even loss of lives. There are Meitei armed groups, Kuki armed groups, Naga armed groups. Some have been active for decades, operating from bases in the hills or across the border in Myanmar. They are not accountable to the state government. They do not recognise the rule of law.
The New Chief Minister’s Challenge: Building Bridges
Chief Minister Singh’s government has been making efforts to restore the primacy of the rule of law but has hardly succeeded in its efforts. The unrest has assumed the pattern of a multi-ethnic conflict that will require intervention from various stakeholders, not just the state government. Singh comes from the Meitei community. That is both an advantage and a liability. He can speak to his community; they may listen. But the Kuki and Naga communities may see him as partisan. They may not trust him.
The first step will be to communicate firmly to all militant groups that law and order is the responsibility of the government and it will shoulder it. No armed group, no matter its cause, can be allowed to operate parallel to the state. This means disarmament, demobilisation, and rehabilitation. It means credible action against those who incite violence, even if they are from the majority community. It means protecting the rights of minorities, even if they are unpopular.
The Union government has a major role to play in this scenario. More so because it had watched in silence, and even encouraged Biren Singh (the previous Chief Minister), when he was running a partisan administration as chief minister when the state was going through the most turbulent phase in its history. The Centre’s inaction was interpreted as complicity. The perception of bias deepened the divide.
The Centre must now aid the state government in such a way to ensure that the government’s writ, not community militias’, runs in every village, whether it is Meitei, Kuki or Naga. It must persuade the majority community to trust the state administration instead of taking up cudgels against it as it makes every effort to bring peace to the state. It can also get the services of Governor Ajay Kumar Bhalla, who took very firm steps in restoring the people’s faith in the state apparatus during the President’s rule in the state, in augmenting the process. Bhalla is seen as a neutral figure, not aligned with any community. His involvement could lend credibility.
Restoring the people’s faith in the democratic process is the first step towards establishing peace among the various communities. The governments must put to use every available tool to ensure this.
The AI Transformation: Redefining Indian IT
Far from the hills of Manipur, a different transformation is underway. Over the last couple of years, Artificial Intelligence has been touted as the greatest disruptor of jobs, the economy and the way people operate. Of these, it was considered the biggest threat to the information technology sector, one of India’s main export staples, because its success was primarily dependent on cost arbitrage. The fear was that AI would write code cheaper than Indian engineers, that AI would handle customer support more efficiently than Indian call centres, that AI would design systems faster than Indian architects. The entire business model—low-cost, high-volume, labour-intensive services—seemed under threat.
Recent revenue data, however, paints a somewhat reassuring macro picture. India’s frontline IT services firms—Tata Consultancy Services, Infosys, HCLTech, Wipro and Tech Mahindra—have closed FY26 with stable profits, signalling that the worst of macroeconomic headwinds may be receding. The sector is not collapsing. It is adapting.
At the more granular level, companies are adapting to the new AI era by decoupling revenue from human effort. They have reported an increase in AI-led productivity even as gains are compressing billing volumes in legacy services—a model that sustained Indian IT for decades. In the old model, revenue was directly proportional to headcount. More engineers meant more billing. In the new model, a smaller team augmented by AI can deliver the same output. Revenue per employee is rising. But the number of employees may not.
The AI-native deals are already translating into a multi-billion-dollar market. With projections of a $300-400 billion AI-led opportunity by 2030, the Indian IT sector is not shrinking; it is just being redefined. The opportunity is not in competing with AI; it is in deploying AI. Indian IT firms are building AI solutions for global clients: predictive maintenance for manufacturing, fraud detection for banking, personalised learning for education, telemedicine for healthcare. These are high-value, high-margin services.
The Narrowing Pyramid: Workforce Transformation
As AI reduces the need for repetitive coding and maintenance work, the industry’s workforce pyramid, which has historically been broad at the base, will narrow. The bottom of the pyramid—the fresh graduates who performed routine coding, testing, and maintenance—will shrink. The middle and top—the architects, the consultants, the client relationship managers—will grow. This is not a loss of jobs; it is a shift in the skill profile.
According to a survey, 80 per cent of business leaders say they would prefer a less experienced candidate with AI skills over a more experienced one without them. A candidate who knows how to use AI tools—how to prompt, how to validate, how to integrate—is more valuable than a candidate with five years of experience in legacy technologies. The premium is on adaptability, not seniority.
Though Indian employees are worried about the threat of AI, a survey shows that they are adapting to new changes in the job market quite well. It also shows that 92 per cent of Indian knowledge workers already use AI at work. They are not waiting for their employers to train them; they are learning on their own. The subject is being introduced at the school level to make children AI-ready. The next generation is being prepared.
The Art of Reinvention: Not Surviving, But Thriving
India, in general, and the IT sector in particular, have weathered many crises before. The dot-com bust, the global financial crisis, the pandemic—each time, the sector emerged stronger. But this moment is different. It is not about surviving disruption—it is about reinventing ourselves.
Surviving means doing the same things slightly better. Reinventing means doing different things. Surviving is defensive. Reinventing is offensive. The Indian IT sector is choosing to reinvent. It is investing in AI talent, building AI platforms, acquiring AI startups, partnering with AI research labs. It is moving up the value chain, from services to solutions, from execution to strategy.
The parallel with Manipur is instructive. Both crises—the ethnic violence and the technological disruption—require a shift from defensive to offensive thinking. In Manipur, the defensive posture is to hunker down, arm your community, and wait for the next attack. The offensive posture is to build trust, share resources, and create a shared future. In IT, the defensive posture is to protect legacy business, resist change, and hope AI goes away. The offensive posture is to learn new skills, embrace new tools, and lead the change.
Conclusion: Two Journeys, One Lesson
Manipur’s long road to peace and Indian IT’s AI-driven transformation are very different stories. One is about bullets and borders; the other is about code and algorithms. But they share a common lesson: denial is not an option. The forces of change—whether ethnic militias or generative AI—cannot be wished away. They must be engaged. They must be managed. They must be shaped.
The governments at the Centre and in Manipur must engage with the armed groups, not just suppress them. They must address the underlying grievances—land, identity, resources—not just manage the symptoms. They must build institutions that are trusted by all communities, not just the majority.
The IT sector’s leaders must engage with AI, not resist it. They must reskill their workforce, not protect outdated roles. They must build new capabilities, not cling to old advantages.
The lesson is the same: reinvention is the only survival strategy.
Q&A: Manipur’s Unrest and Indian IT’s AI Transformation
Q1: What triggered the latest cycle of violence in Manipur, and what are the underlying causes?
A1: The current cycle of violence began in May 2023, triggered by a court order that directed the state government to consider extending Scheduled Tribe (ST) status to the Meitei community. The hill tribes (Kuki, Naga, and others) feared this would “dilute their existing ST benefits and alter the demographic balance.” However, the underlying causes are deeper: Manipur is a border state with a “complex ethnic mosaic”—the valley-dwelling Meitei (predominantly Hindu) and the hill-dwelling Kuki, Naga, and other tribal communities (predominantly Christian). Colonial administration administered hills and valley separately, creating “administrative distinctions that hardened into ethnic identities.” The merger of Manipur into the Indian Union was contested, and demands for autonomy have “simmered for decades.”
Q2: What is the “common thread” behind the violence, and what is the first step toward peace?
A2: The common thread is the “presence of armed groups for the protection of communities and villages.” These groups “roam around freely offering a sense of security to the inhabitants who mostly belong to a community.” Allegations of encroachment or border skirmishes can “set fire to the charged emotions,” leading to disruptions and loss of lives. The first step is to “communicate firmly to all militant groups that law and order is the responsibility of the government and it will shoulder it.” This means “disarmament, demobilisation, and rehabilitation,” credible action against those who incite violence (even from the majority community), and protecting minority rights.
Q3: What role does the Union government need to play in Manipur?
A3: The Union government has a “major role” because it had “watched in silence, and even encouraged Biren Singh” when he ran a “partisan administration” during the most turbulent phase. The Centre’s inaction was interpreted as “complicity,” and the “perception of bias deepened the divide.” The Centre must now aid the state government to ensure “government’s writ, not community militias’, runs in every village.” It must “persuade the majority community to trust the state administration.” It can also utilise Governor Ajay Kumar Bhalla, who took “very firm steps” during President’s rule and is seen as a “neutral figure, not aligned with any community.” Restoring “people’s faith in the democratic process is the first step towards establishing peace.”
Q4: How is the Indian IT sector adapting to the AI revolution, and what are the projections?
A4: India’s frontline IT firms (TCS, Infosys, HCLTech, Wipro, Tech Mahindra) have closed FY26 with “stable profits.” Companies are adapting by “decoupling revenue from human effort,” reporting an increase in AI-led productivity. AI-native deals are “translating into a multi-billion-dollar market,” with projections of a $300-400 billion AI-led opportunity by 2030. The sector is “not shrinking; it is just being redefined.” The workforce pyramid will narrow: the bottom (routine coding, testing, maintenance) will shrink; the middle and top (architects, consultants, client relationship managers) will grow. A survey shows 80 per cent of business leaders prefer a “less experienced candidate with AI skills over a more experienced one without them.” 92 per cent of Indian knowledge workers already use AI at work.
Q5: What is the “art of reinvention,” and how does it apply to both Manipur and Indian IT?
A5: The article argues that this moment “is not about surviving disruption—it is about reinventing ourselves.” Surviving means “doing the same things slightly better” (defensive). Reinventing means “doing different things” (offensive). In Manipur, the defensive posture is to “hunker down, arm your community, and wait for the next attack.” The offensive posture is to “build trust, share resources, and create a shared future.” In IT, the defensive posture is to “protect legacy business, resist change, and hope AI goes away.” The offensive posture is to “learn new skills, embrace new tools, and lead the change.” The common lesson: “denial is not an option.” The forces of change—whether ethnic militias or generative AI—”cannot be wished away. They must be engaged. They must be managed. They must be shaped.” The article concludes: “reinvention is the only survival strategy.”
