India’s Moment, A Superpower in the Making at a Critical Crossroads

India’s Moment, A Superpower in the Making at a Critical Crossroads

The cover of The Economist dated February 8, 2025, poses a question that resonates far beyond the magazine’s readership, capturing a pivotal moment in global geopolitics and economics: “India’s moment: What will Modi do with it?” This framing is not merely journalistic; it is a recognition from one of the world’s most influential policy and business publications that India, under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, stands at an inflection point of historic proportions. The phrase “India’s moment” acknowledges a unique convergence of circumstances—geopolitical realignment, demographic dividend, digital leapfrogging, and relative macroeconomic stability—that has positioned the nation as the world’s most credible counterweight to China and a indispensable player in the 21st-century order. Yet, the pointed follow-up question underscores a global anxiety: Will India’s leadership harness this moment to achieve sustainable, inclusive greatness, or will it be squandered through domestic polarization, institutional erosion, or strategic overreach?

Deconstructing “The Moment”: The Pillars of India’s Ascent

India’s current prominence is built on several interconnected pillars, each contributing to what international observers are now calling its “moment.”

1. Geopolitical Sweet Spot: In an era of U.S.-China strategic rivalry and a “friendshoring” global supply chain reset, India has emerged as the ultimate strategic swing state. It is a member of the QUAD, a foundational partner in the U.S.-led “Pax Silica” for tech security, and a critical voice in the Global South, all while maintaining a fiercely independent streak exemplified by its continued engagement with Russia. The world needs a democratic, populous, and capable India to balance China, and New Delhi has skilfully leveraged this need into tangible gains in defense technology, foreign investment, and diplomatic capital.

2. Economic Resilience and Growth: Post-pandemic, India has consistently been the fastest-growing major economy. While China grapples with a property crisis, demographic decline, and tech-sector crackdowns, India’s growth narrative—fueled by public capital expenditure in infrastructure, a booming digital economy, and a rising consumer class—appears comparatively robust. Landmark achievements like the Chandrayaan-3 lunar mission and a burgeoning space and tech startup ecosystem have bolstered its image as a hub of innovation and “can-do” dynamism.

3. The Demographic Dividend in a Graying World: As China, Japan, Europe, and even parts of Southeast Asia age rapidly, India boasts a youthful population. With a median age of 28, it offers the world’s largest pool of potential workers, consumers, and innovators for decades to come. This demographic advantage is a powerful economic engine, provided it can be equipped with education, skills, and jobs.

4. The Digital Public Infrastructure (DPI) Revolution: India’s homegrown tech stack—Aadhaar for identity, UPI for payments, and OCEN for credit—has become a globally exported model for inclusive development. It has formalized the economy, empowered millions with direct benefit transfers, and created a unique laboratory for scaling digital solutions to complex problems.

The Crucial Caveats: The Challenges Within the Moment

The Economist’s question implies that this “moment” is not a guaranteed destiny but a window of opportunity fraught with significant internal challenges.

1. The Jobs Conundrum: The single greatest threat to the moment is the inability to generate sufficient quality, formal-sector employment for its millions of young entrants into the workforce each year. High GDP growth has not translated into proportional job growth, leading to underemployment, a reliance on precarious gig work, and the risk of a “demographic dividend” turning into a “demographic disaster” of discontent.

2. Deepening Democratic and Social Strains: Under Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), India has seen a centralization of power, a weakening of institutional checks and balances (from the judiciary to the media and electoral bonds), and the exacerbation of Hindu majoritarian politics that has left religious minorities, particularly Muslims, feeling increasingly marginalized and insecure. This domestic polarization worries international partners who champion democratic values and could undermine social cohesion and stability.

3. Regional Disparities and Agricultural Distress: The benefits of growth are unevenly distributed. Southern and western states race ahead, while the populous Hindi heartland lags on key human development indices. The agricultural sector, employing nearly half the workforce, remains in perpetual crisis, marked by low productivity, indebtedness, and protests. Any sustainable national rise must uplift these foundational sectors and regions.

4. Strategic Ambiguity and Capacity Gaps: While adept at multi-alignment, India’s strategic ambiguity can frustrate allies. Its military and bureaucratic machinery, though formidable, often lacks the rapid decision-making and joint-forces integration needed to project power commensurate with its aspirations. The gap between strategic intent and executive capacity remains a work in progress.

Scenarios: What Might Modi Do With This Moment?

As he potentially enters a fourth term after the 2024 elections, Modi’s choices will define the era. The Economist’s cover suggests several potential paths.

• Scenario 1: The Reformer & State-Builder (The Optimal Path): Modi uses his political capital and global goodwill to launch a “second-generation” reform wave. This would focus on:

  • Land & Labor Market Reforms: Overcoming political hurdles to create flexible labor markets and ease land acquisition for industry, supercharging manufacturing under the Production-Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme.

  • Human Capital Investment: A war-footing mission to overhaul public education and vocational skilling (as hinted in the 2026 budget’s focus) to make the workforce globally competitive.

  • Federal Cooperation: Working collaboratively with opposition-led states to ensure growth is nationally balanced.

  • Green Industrialization: Positioning India as the global hub for green hydrogen, renewable tech, and sustainable manufacturing, aligning development with climate imperatives.
    This path would solidify India’s economic foundation, creating a truly virtuous cycle of growth, jobs, and inclusion.

• Scenario 2: The Nationalist Consolidator (The Current Trajectory): Modi prioritizes ideological and cultural projects, deepening Hindu-nationalist narratives, further centralizing power, and maintaining a focus on welfare politics (free rations, subsidies) over hard economic restructuring. Foreign policy remains transactional, leveraging the “moment” for immediate gains without deepening irreversible strategic commitments. This path might maintain political dominance and social peace for a time but would likely see India’s growth potential capped, its social fabric further frayed, and its global reputation as a liberal democracy diminished.

• Scenario 3: The Geopolitical Gambler: India, emboldened by its “moment,” takes a more assertive, even aggressive, stance in its neighborhood—intensifying the border standoff with China, applying more pressure on Pakistan, and leveraging its Indian Ocean presence. While potentially popular domestically, this path risks military conflict, economic disruption, and alienating partners who seek stability. It would represent a militaristic interpretation of the moment.

The Global Stakes: Why the World is Watching

The world has a vested interest in India’s choices. For the West, a reforming, democratic, and strong India is the best hope for a free and open Indo-Pacific. For the Global South, India is a test case for whether a developing, diverse democracy can achieve high-income status without an authoritarian model. For global business, India is the last great untapped market and a vital production alternative.

If India succeeds on a reformist path, it could trigger a century of Asian-led growth anchored in democratic values. If it falters through polarization or economic stagnation, it would leave a vacuum filled by an increasingly assertive China, with profound implications for global trade, technology standards, and the liberal international order.

Conclusion: The Weight of History and Choice

The Economist’s cover is a tribute and a warning. “India’s moment” is real—forged by global shifts and a decade of domestic policy under Modi. It is a moment of unparalleled opportunity to lift hundreds of millions out of poverty, to become an arsenal of innovation, and to shape the rules of the new world.

The question, “What will Modi do with it?” places the onus squarely on India’s leadership. The answer will not be found in grand speeches at global forums, but in the quiet, gritty work of creating jobs, educating children, empowering farmers, strengthening institutions, and nurturing a pluralistic society. History has handed India the baton. The coming years will reveal whether it sprints toward a radiant future or stumbles under the weight of its own contradictions. The world holds its breath, waiting to see what India—and Modi—will make of their moment.

Q&A: India’s Moment on the World Stage

Q1: What exactly does The Economist mean by “India’s moment,” and why is 2025 considered a pivotal point?

A1: “India’s moment” refers to a unique convergence of geopolitical, economic, and demographic factors that have positioned India as a critical, indispensable global player. Key elements include:

• Geopolitics: As U.S.-China tensions escalate, India is the premier “swing state”—a democratic, populous counterweight that everyone (the West, Russia, the Global South) needs to engage.

• Economics: It is the world’s fastest-growing major economy at a time when its primary rival, China, is facing significant headwinds, making it the top destination for foreign investment seeking to “de-risk” from China.

• Demographics: Its youthful population is a stark contrast to the aging societies of China, Europe, and Japan, offering a long-term growth engine.

• Technology: Its digital public infrastructure (UPI, Aadhaar) is a globally admired model.
  2025 is pivotal as it follows a potential third consecutive electoral victory for Modi, giving him a historic mandate at the precise time these global factors align, demanding decisive action to cement this position.

Q2: The cover asks, “What will Modi do with it?” What are the biggest internal obstacles that could cause India to squander this moment?

A2: The primary obstacles are domestic and structural:

• Jobless Growth: The failure to create enough quality formal-sector jobs for its massive youth population risks social unrest and turns the “demographic dividend” into a liability.

• Democratic Erosion & Social Polarization: Rising majoritarianism, weakening institutions, and the marginalization of minorities could undermine social cohesion, tarnish India’s democratic brand (a key differentiator from China), and destabilize the polity from within.

• Agricultural Distress and Regional Inequality: Stagnant farm incomes and vast disparities between prosperous coastal states and the poorer Hindi heartland create economic and political fissures that unsustainable growth.

• Implementation & Reform Fatigue: The capacity of the Indian state to execute complex reforms (in land, labor, education) remains a bottleneck. Political capital may be spent on cultural politics rather than economic modernization.

Q3: From a global perspective, specifically for the West and the Indo-Pacific region, what is the best-case scenario for how Modi uses this moment?

A3: The best-case scenario for the West is “Scenario 1: The Reformer & State-Builder.” This entails:

• Economic Transformation: Deep market reforms that make India a manufacturing and tech hub, fully integrating it into Western-led supply chains (like “Pax Silica”).

• Democratic Resilience: A recommitment to pluralism and institutional strength, proving the superiority of the democratic development model.

• Strategic Clarity: A firmer, more operational strategic partnership with the QUAD and the West to uphold a free and open Indo-Pacific, including clearer alignment on challenges like China.

• Climate Leadership: A serious pivot to green energy, making India a partner, not a obstacle, in the global net-zero transition.
  This scenario creates a strong, stable, democratic ally that anchors Asia.

Q4: What are the potential risks if India’s moment leads to greater nationalism and assertiveness rather than liberal reform?

A4: A turn towards heightened nationalism and assertiveness (Scenario 2 & 3) carries major risks:

• Regional Instability: More aggressive posturing on borders with China and Pakistan could trigger unintended conflicts, destabilizing South Asia and drawing in global powers.

• Economic Isolation: Protectionist, inward-looking policies could scare away the foreign investment essential for growth.

• Global Reputational Damage: If perceived as an illiberal, majoritarian state, India would lose its moral high ground as a democratic alternative to China, complicating partnerships with Western democracies and undermining its soft power.

• Domestic Fragmentation: Intensified majoritarianism could provoke severe internal strife and separatism, destroying the social unity required for a nation to project power abroad.

Q5: Beyond the government, what role do Indian civil society and the private sector play in securing “India’s moment”?

A5: The moment cannot be secured by government alone. It requires a whole-of-society effort:

• Private Sector as Growth Engine: Indian corporations must move beyond cronyism and trading to invest in R&D, global branding, and ethical governance. They are crucial for job creation and innovation.

• Civil Society as Watchdog and Innovator: A vibrant civil society is essential to hold power accountable, protect minority rights, advocate for inclusive policies, and pilot grassroots solutions in education, healthcare, and sustainability.

• The Diaspora as Ambassadors & Bridges: The global Indian diaspora are unofficial ambassadors, facilitating technology transfer, investment, and cross-cultural understanding.

• Media as a Democratic Pillar: A free, robust media is critical for informed debate and exposing failures. Its weakening is a direct threat to the moment’s sustainability.
  In essence, a government can create the platform, but the quality and longevity of “India’s moment” will be determined by the energy, ethics, and enterprise of its people and institutions.