The Resurgence of Horology Hottest Market, Why the Pre-Owned Watch Boom is Back

In the arcane and often dizzying world of luxury timepieces, a decisive inflection point has been reached. The rollercoaster ride of the secondary watch market—a five-year saga of pandemic-fueled frenzy, followed by a dramatic 2022 crash—has finally tilted back upward. The Bloomberg Subdial Watch Index, tracking the 50 most-traded models by value, has hit its highest point in over two years. For investors, collectors, and aspiring owners, the message is clear: the era of post-bubble bargains is narrowing. The slump is over, and a new, more nuanced phase of growth is underway. This recovery, however, is not a simple repeat of past manias. It is a more complex story, driven by shifting macroeconomic tides, deliberate brand strategies, and a chastened but resurgent collector psychology. Understanding this moment requires examining why prices are climbing again, what’s different this time, and whether the recovery has legs—or if it remains a fragile rebound vulnerable to the next geopolitical or financial tremor.

The Anatomy of a Crash and the Mechanics of a Rebound

To appreciate the current ascent, one must revisit the vertiginous fall. The secondary watch market’s bubble was a classic creature of its time: the early 2020s. Flush with cryptocurrency gains and government stimulus payments, a new wave of speculators—the “watch bros”—entered the market. They weren’t just buying watches; they were flipping assets, often with borrowed money, chasing exponential gains on hyped models from the “Holy Trinity” (Patek Philippe, Rolex, Audemars Piguet) and select others. Online platforms like Chrono24 and private dealer networks became frenzied trading floors.

The bubble’s burst in spring 2022 was equally emblematic. As the Federal Reserve began its aggressive interest rate hiking cycle to combat inflation, liquidity dried up. Simultaneously, the crypto market cratered, evaporating the speculative capital that had fueled much of the demand. Speculators who had bought on margin were forced into distressed sales to cover debts, triggering a cascading sell-off. Prices for even the most coveted steel sports models from Rolex and Patek tumbled, in some cases by 40% or more from their peaks. The mood shifted from unbridled greed to palpable fear.

The road to recovery has been gradual and is now being propelled by several convergent forces:

The Rising Tide of Retail Prices: The most straightforward driver is the escalating cost of new watches. In the United States, punitive tariffs on Swiss imports (which reached 39% before being reduced to 15% in November 2025) forced major brands to implement significant price hikes. Rolex, the market’s bellwether, enacted an estimated 6% global increase in early 2026. As the retail price of a new Daytona or Submariner climbs, the relative value proposition of a pre-owned model improves, pulling demand into the secondary market. This is a fundamental economic lever: when primary market prices rise, the secondary market often rises in sympathy, especially for brands with consistent demand.
A Broader-Based Recovery: Unlike earlier, tentative rebounds in 2024 and early 2025 that were almost exclusively led by the top-tier brands (Patek, Rolex, Cartier, Omega), the current upswing is displaying remarkable breadth. According to analysis from Morgan Stanley and Watch Charts, prices rose in the final quarter of 2025 for 21 of the 35 brands tracked. This indicates a healthier, more diversified market where interest is spreading beyond the usual suspects to include revived heritage names like Jaeger-LeCoultre and even historically undervalued brands. It suggests a recovery rooted in genuine appreciation and strategic brand-building, not just speculative herd behavior.
The Return of “Risk-On” Sentiment: The secondary watch market is notoriously sensitive to the fortunes of broader financial markets. The record-setting performance of global equities in 2025 and the resurgence of Bitcoin provided the necessary “wealth effect” and confidence for discretionary spending to return. When investors see their stock portfolios grow, they feel richer and are more inclined to allocate capital to luxury goods and alternative assets like watches.
Strategic Brand Ingenuity: Watchmakers are no longer passive observers of their own secondary markets. They are actively shaping them. Richemont’s successful playbook with Cartier—making it a favorite among Gen-Z through savvy marketing and iconic designs like the Panthere—is now being applied to resurrect Jaeger-LeCoultre, notably through a high-profile relaunch of its iconic Reverso. This kind of brand heat directly boosts secondary values. More importantly, brands like Rolex have moved decisively to co-opt the resale market through their Certified Pre-Owned (CPO) programs. Rolex’s CPO sales reportedly soared to over $500 million in 2025. By authenticating, servicing, and reselling its own vintage and discontinued models, Rolex legitimizes the secondary market, sets price floors, and captures a lucrative revenue stream that would otherwise go to independent dealers.

The New Market Landscape: Nuances and Nerves

This recovery, however, exists within a transformed landscape. The scars of the 2022 crash run deep, imparting a new sense of caution.

The End of the “Flip” Mentality: The archetypal “watch bro” looking for a quick, leveraged profit has largely been burned out of the market. Today’s buyers are more likely to be collectors, enthusiasts, or individuals seeking a lasting luxury purchase. They are “nervous about overpaying,” conducting more research, and prioritizing personal taste over pure investment potential. This leads to a more stable, less volatile market foundation.
The Quirks of Fashion and Nostalgia: Market dynamics are increasingly influenced by stylistic trends. The roaring popularity of Cartier’s smaller, elegant Panthere has ignited a wider vogue for vintage and discontinued smaller models, such as the Rolex 26mm Lady Datejust. These “quirks” demonstrate that the market is driven not just by macroeconomics but also by shifting aesthetics and nostalgia, creating unpredictable pockets of value.
Fragility Amidst Strength: For all its current vigor, the market’s health remains tethered to external stability. The recent “jolts to stocks and bonds” serve as a stark reminder that confidence is perishable. A major geopolitical crisis, a sustained equity market correction, or a return to sharply higher interest rates could swiftly reverse the positive sentiment. The market is recovering, but it has not regained the irrational exuberance that made it so vulnerable before.

The Double-Edged Sword for Watchmakers

The strengthening secondary market presents a complex dilemma for the brands themselves.

On one hand, a robust resale market is the ultimate testament to a brand’s desirability, legacy, and perceived value retention. It fuels the aspirational dream and justifies long waitlists at authorized dealers. Strong secondary prices for discontinued models burnish the brand’s entire historical catalogue.

On the other hand, every pre-owned sale can represent a lost new sale. If a consumer can acquire a near-mint, five-year-old Submariner for significantly less than the latest model at retail, the brand misses out on the full margin of a new watch. This is precisely why the CPO programs are so strategic: they allow brands like Rolex to reclaim control, ensure quality, and capture revenue from this parallel economy, turning a threat into an opportunity.

Conclusion: Time to Act, But With Eyes Wide Open

The trajectory is set: second-hand watch values are on a steady upswing, propelled by rising retail prices, broader brand participation, and a cautiously optimistic financial climate. The “bargains” that emerged from the 2022 wreckage—those moments where iconic pieces could be had for prices unthinkable during the peak—are rapidly disappearing.

For the prospective buyer or investor, this creates a window of opportunity that is, indeed, closing. Prices are moving up, but they are not yet at the speculative extremes of the 2021 peak. There is still value to be found, particularly among the brands benefiting from the broader-based recovery or in niche categories sparked by new fashion trends.

However, the essential lesson of the last five years is that this market is not a one-way bet. It is a hybrid of passion and finance, susceptible to the whims of global capital, central bank policy, and cultural trends. The current recovery looks more sustainable because it is built on a wider base and a more cautious mindset. But sustainability is not invincibility.

So, if you’ve been eyeing that pre-owned Patek, that vintage Cartier, or even a discontinued Rolex, the advice rings true: better act fast. The clock is ticking, not just on prices, but on a unique moment of relative value in the ongoing story of luxury horology. Yet, as you do, remember to buy what you love, understand the market’s newfound rhythms, and never forget that in the world of watches, as in finance, past performance is no guarantee of future results. The only certainty is that time, much like the market, marches on.

Q&A: The Resurgent Pre-Owned Watch Market

Q1: What were the primary causes of the secondary watch market crash in 2022, and how is the current recovery different?
A1: The 2022 crash was primarily caused by a perfect storm of withdrawn liquidity and speculative panic. Key factors were:

The End of Easy Money: Aggressive interest rate hikes by central banks made borrowing expensive and reduced speculative capital.
Crypto Collapse: The dramatic fall in cryptocurrency values wiped out a major source of wealth for a new cohort of flashy buyers.
Forced Selling: Speculators who had bought watches on margin (with borrowed money) were forced to sell to cover their debts, creating a flood of supply.

The current recovery is different because its drivers are more fundamental and broad-based. It’s fueled by:

Rising Retail Prices: Tariffs and cost pressures have pushed up new watch prices, making pre-owned models relatively more attractive.
Broader Participation: Gains are now seen across 21+ brands, not just the top 3-4, indicating healthier, diversified demand.
Cautious Sentiment: Buyers today are scarred by the crash and are less likely to be pure speculators; they are more cautious collectors, reducing volatility.
Brand Intervention: Major brands like Rolex are now actively participating in and legitimizing the secondary market through Certified Pre-Owned programs, providing stability.

Q2: How do rising retail prices for new watches actually cause pre-owned prices to increase?
A2: This works through classic price anchoring and relative value perception. When Rolex increases the retail price of a new Submariner from $10,000 to $10,600, it resets the entire value framework for that model. Suddenly, a two-year-old pre-owned Submariner priced at $9,500 looks like a much better deal relative to the new cost. This increased attractiveness boosts demand for the pre-owned piece. Furthermore, it signals the brand’s confidence in its own value, which strengthens the overall perception of the watch as an asset that holds or appreciates in value. The secondary market price isn’t directly set by the brand, but it floats in a sympathetic relationship with the primary market’s official price point.

Q3: What is the significance of brands like Rolex launching Certified Pre-Owned (CPO) programs? Is this good or bad for collectors?
A3: The significance is profound and represents a major strategic shift. For decades, brands ignored or tacitly disapproved of the secondary market. Now, they are co-opting and legitimizing it.

For the Brands (like Rolex), it’s beneficial because:

Captures Revenue: They earn a margin on the resale, money that previously went entirely to independent dealers.
Controls Narrative: They ensure authenticity, service quality, and set a price floor, protecting the brand’s value.
Engages Customers: It creates a new sales channel and keeps customers within the brand ecosystem, even when buying older models.

For Collectors, it’s a double-edged sword:

Pros: Guarantees authenticity and quality (with service and warranty), making the market safer for newcomers. It can add stability.
Cons: It potentially reduces the “finds” and bargains from the independent market. By setting official price floors, it can make certain models more expensive across the board and reduce negotiation leverage. It centralizes control with the manufacturer.

Q4: The article mentions the market’s recovery is “fragile.” What are the biggest risks that could reverse the current uptrend?
A4: The recovery is fragile because it remains heavily dependent on external macroeconomic and psychological factors. The biggest risks include:

Financial Market Correction: A significant and sustained drop in global equity markets would erode the “wealth effect” that fuels luxury spending. Watch buyers feel poorer when their stock portfolio shrinks.
Geopolitical Shock: Major conflicts, trade wars, or political instability can shatter consumer confidence overnight, freezing discretionary purchases.
Return of High Inflation/Interest Rates: If central banks are forced to hike rates again aggressively, it would repeat the 2022 dynamic of crushing liquidity and speculative appetite.
Shift in Consumer Sentiment: Luxury markets are fickle. A sudden move away from “quiet luxury” or wristwatches as status symbols towards other asset classes (e.g., art, classic cars) could dampen demand.

Q5: For someone considering buying a pre-owned luxury watch now, what is the strategic advice given the current market phase?
A5: The strategic advice is to “act fast, but with prudence.”

Act Fast: The window for the best post-crash bargains is closing. Prices are on a clear upward trajectory, so delaying likely means paying more.
Buy What You Love: Given the market’s volatility, the safest approach is to purchase a watch you intend to wear and enjoy for the long term, not purely as a short-term investment. This insulates you from price fluctuations.
Focus on Broader Market Gains: Look beyond just Patek, Rolex, and AP. Explore brands participating in the broader recovery (like Cartier, Jaeger-LeCoultre, or Omega) where relative value might still be found.
Do Your Homework: Research specific model references, price histories on tracking sites, and buy from reputable dealers. Be wary of overpaying for hyped models.
Consider the CPO Route: For peace of mind, especially for a first major purchase, a manufacturer’s CPO program offers authenticity and warranty security, albeit often at a premium price.

In essence, the time for opportunistic bargain-hunting is fading, but the time for informed, passionate acquisition, with a keen eye on value and longevity, is now.

The Resurgence of Horology Hottest Market, Why the Pre-Owned Watch Boom is Back