The Anatomy of a Landslide, Deconstructing the Caste and Class Calculus Behind the NDA’s Victory in Bihar
Introduction: Beyond the Surface of a Political Tsunami
The 2025 Bihar Assembly elections resulted in a landslide victory for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), a political outcome so decisive that it has spawned a compelling narrative: that the electorate has transcended the traditional fault lines of caste and class. This perception, while alluring in its suggestion of a modernized political landscape, requires rigorous, evidence-based scrutiny. The triumph of the NDA is not a story of caste and class becoming irrelevant; rather, it is a masterclass in the construction of a new, broader, and more resilient social coalition that successfully navigated and leveraged these very identities. By analyzing post-poll survey data, we can dissect the anatomy of this victory, revealing how a combination of strategic caste consolidation and a decisive shift among the economic elite propelled the alliance to power. This article argues that the NDA’s win was not a rejection of identity politics, but the successful execution of a more sophisticated and inclusive version of it, coupled with a powerful appeal to aspirational economics.
Section 1: The Mirage of a Caste-Less Verdict
The initial perception of a verdict rising above caste stems from two observable phenomena: the NDA’s victory in several seats with a sizable Muslim population and its strong performance in constituencies reserved for Scheduled Castes (SCs). This has led to speculation about a significant shift of Muslim and Dalit votes towards the ruling alliance. However, this is a superficial reading of a complex electoral dynamic.
A political party can win in a constituency dominated by a particular community for two primary reasons. First, it can genuinely secure a large share of the votes from that dominant community. Second, and just as crucially, it can benefit from a “counter-mobilization”—where voters from other, non-dominant communities in the same constituency unite behind its candidate in even larger numbers. In Bihar, the NDA’s success in Muslim-dominated seats is a classic example of the latter. While the Muslim vote itself remained largely with the Mahagathbandhan (MGB), a unified vote from upper castes, non-Yadav OBCs, and a segment of Dalits in these constituencies created a winning formula. This demonstrates not the dissolution of caste lines, but their strategic realignment against a perceived common opponent.
Section 2: The Caste Mosaic – Polarization and Fragmentation
A granular look at the survey data reveals a tapestry of sharply defined caste-based voting patterns. The election was characterized not by a blurring of identities, but by their intense polarization, which ultimately worked in the NDA’s favor.
The MGB’s Diminishing Core: Yadavs and Muslims
The Mahagathbandhan, led by the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), found its core support base both solidified and slightly eroded. The Yadav community, the RJD’s traditional backbone, remained largely loyal but showed signs of fragmentation. In 2025, 74% of Yadavs voted for the MGB, a significant drop from the 84% recorded in the 2020 Assembly elections. Conversely, 19% of Yadavs broke ranks to support the NDA, indicating a chink in the RJD’s armor.
A more pronounced shift was visible among Muslim voters. While 70% still supported the MGB, this was a decline from 76% in 2020. Crucially, the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) acted as a spoiler, garnering 9% of the Muslim vote. This fragmentation was particularly damaging in constituencies where Muslims constituted over 35% of the electorate, with the AIMIM winning five seats. The failure of the MGB to secure a pre-poll understanding with the AIMIM effectively split the anti-NDA vote in key pockets, gifting victories to the NDA. Beyond these two communities, the MGB failed to make significant inroads into any other major social group.
The NDA’s Expansive Social Coalition
In stark contrast to the MGB’s reliance on a narrowing base, the NDA engineered a vast and diverse social coalition.
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Upper Castes: The NDA consolidated the upper caste vote like never before. A staggering 67% of upper-caste voters supported the alliance, a sharp increase from 54% in 2020. Only 9% voted for the MGB, underscoring a near-total polarization.
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Non-Yadav OBCs: This was the bedrock of the NDA’s victory. The alliance executed a near-perfect consolidation of the extremely backward classes (EBCs) and other dominant OBC groups. Among the Kurmis and Koeris (the castes of Nitish Kumar and Upendra Kushwaha, respectively), 77% voted for the NDA. The “lower” OBCs followed suit, with 68% backing the alliance. The inclusion of the Vikasheel Insan Party (VIP) in the MGB did little to stem this tide, offering only marginal gains.
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Dalits: The NDA successfully co-opted a majority of the Dalit electorate. Sixty percent of Dalits voted for the alliance, a direct benefit of incorporating parties with strong Dalit bases—the Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) and the Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM)—into its fold. This strategic inclusion prevented the MGB from making Dalit issues a central plank of their campaign.
This data reveals a clear picture: the NDA’s victory was built on a “social coalition of the extremes,” uniting the top (upper castes) and the bottom (non-Yadav OBCs and a majority of Dalits) of the caste hierarchy against the middle (Yadavs) and Muslims.
Section 3: The Class Factor – The Affluent Pivot
While caste provided the structural framework for the NDA’s victory, class dynamics supplied the critical momentum. The alliance made dramatic inroads among the economically prosperous sections of the electorate, a shift that proved to be a decisive differentiator.
The data shows a remarkable class divide in voting behavior. Among upper-class and middle-class voters, 58% voted for the NDA, while just over a third supported the MGB. This represents a massive surge for the NDA compared to 2020, when it had secured the support of only 38% of the upper class and 36% of the middle class. This swing of nearly 20 percentage points among the economically advantaged was a cornerstone of the landslide.
In contrast, the contest among the poor and lower-income groups was far more competitive. Among the economically poor, both alliances were tied at 38% each. Within the lower-income class, the NDA held a slender lead of 44% to the MGB’s 41%. This indicates that while the MGB retained its core appeal among the economically disadvantaged, it lost the narrative among those with greater financial security and aspiration.
This class-based cleavage suggests that the NDA’s campaign, likely emphasizing themes of stability, governance, and economic development, resonated powerfully with the middle and upper classes. The MGB’s promise of a government job for every family, perceived by many as fiscally reckless, may have alienated these voters, who prioritized macroeconomic stability over radical welfare promises.
Section 4: The Confluence – How Caste and Class Created a Perfect Storm
The NDA’s victory was not the result of either caste or class acting in isolation, but of their powerful confluence. The alliance’s success lay in its ability to weave these two threads into a cohesive political fabric.
The broad social coalition of upper castes, non-Yadav OBCs, and Dalits provided a massive, cross-cutting base of support. Upon this foundation, the significant swing of the middle and upper classes—who largely belong to these very castes—added an overwhelming advantage. An upper-caste, middle-class voter and a lower-OBC, middle-class voter found common cause in the NDA’s platform. This dual appeal across both social identity and economic aspiration created a virtuous cycle for the alliance, allowing it to build an insurmountable lead of nearly 10 percentage points over the MGB.
The MGB, on the other hand, found itself confined. Its support was heavily concentrated among Yadavs and Muslims, and while it was competitive among the poor, it failed to break out of this demographic silo. It could not attract the upper castes, could not splinter the non-Yadav OBC bloc, and lost a critical portion of the aspirational middle class across all communities.
Conclusion: The New Political Grammar of Bihar
The 2025 Bihar verdict is a landmark moment that redefines the state’s political grammar. It dismantles the myth of a caste-less democracy while simultaneously illustrating that caste calculus is no longer sufficient on its own. The winning formula now requires a party to build a mahagathbandhan (grand alliance) not just of parties, but of castes, and to overlay this social coalition with a compelling narrative that wins the trust of the economically influential classes.
The NDA mastered this new grammar. It presented itself as the guardian of a broad social coalition, offering representation to a wider array of groups than the MGB. Simultaneously, it positioned itself as the steward of a stable and aspirational economic future, thereby capturing the middle-class vote. The MGB, by contrast, appeared as a defender of a narrower social interest and a proponent of populist economics that alarmed the affluent.
The lesson from Bihar is clear: identity and economics are not opposing forces in Indian politics; they are two sides of the same coin. The party that can successfully mint a platform appealing to both will be the one that shapes India’s political future. The NDA’s landslide was not a rejection of identity politics, but the triumph of a more complex, inclusive, and potent form of it.
Q&A: Unpacking the Bihar Verdict
1. If the NDA won in Muslim-dominated seats, doesn’t that mean Muslims voted for them?
Not necessarily. This is a common misconception. The NDA’s victory in seats with a high Muslim population was primarily due to counter-mobilization. In these constituencies, while the majority of Muslims voted for the MGB or the AIMIM, their vote was split. Meanwhile, the upper castes, non-Yadav OBCs, and Dalits in the same constituency voted overwhelmingly as a bloc for the NDA. This unified vote from multiple non-dominant communities often surpassed the divided vote of the Muslim community, allowing the NDA candidate to win without significant Muslim support.
2. Why did the non-Yadav OBCs vote so overwhelmingly for the NDA?
Several factors contributed to this consolidation:
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Strategic Alliance Building: The presence of leaders like Nitish Kumar (Kurmi) and Upendra Kushwaha (Koeri) within the NDA gave these communities a sense of direct representation and stake in the alliance’s victory.
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Political Counter-Identity: There has been a long-standing political project to unite non-Yadav OBCs as a counterweight to the perceived dominance of the Yadav community in the MGB. The NDA successfully positioned itself as the vehicle for this ambition.
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Perception of Governance: Nitish Kumar’s brand of “Sushasan” (good governance) has historically resonated with these groups, who may perceive it as more equitable than the RJD’s rule.
3. What does the massive swing of middle and upper-class voters to the NDA signify?
This swing is profoundly significant and points to the growing importance of economic aspirations in voting behavior. It suggests that:
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Rejection of Populism: The MGB’s promise of a government job for every family was likely seen by these voters as fiscally irresponsible and a threat to economic stability.
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Preference for Stability: The middle class, in particular, values predictability, law and order, and a policy environment conducive to growth, which they associated with the NDA.
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A New Political Cleavage: The election highlighted an emerging class divide, where economic status is becoming as important as caste identity in determining political preference, at least among the more affluent.
4. How did the AIMIM affect the election’s outcome?
The AIMIM played the role of a “spoiler.” By contesting separately, it fragmented the Muslim vote in critical, high-density Muslim constituencies. In seats where the Muslim vote could have been decisive for the MGB, the AIMIM split this vote, allowing the NDA to win with a consolidated Hindu vote. Its five victories came at the direct cost of the MGB and exemplify how small parties can alter the outcome by dividing a larger vote bank.
5. Is the era of caste-based voting in Bihar over?
Absolutely not. The election proved that caste remains the fundamental building block of political mobilization in Bihar. However, it demonstrated that caste arithmetic alone is no longer sufficient. The winning strategy now involves:
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Building a wider, more inclusive caste coalition than your opponent.
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Layering this social coalition with a persuasive economic narrative that appeals to the aspirational middle class across all castes.
Caste provides the structure, but economics increasingly provides the engine for political victory.
